SUPR Tournament Predictions for RAT17Q1
The table below shows my prediction for the RAT17Q1 based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings. The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).
The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings (Appendix D - Time Varying), so they include both TC RPS and player skill.
Results are now shown both for the initial bracket structure, and for subsequent times when various match results are known. The subsequent updates are not carried out on any fixed schedule.
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-- 7 April 2018 FINAL UPDATE --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
Grim THA 2638 100 100 100 100 100
kingzilla RFH 2730 100 0 0 0 0
captainron THA 2676 100 100 0 0 0
bakija GRN 2637 100 100 0 0 0
Old_School GRN 2623 0 0 0 0 0
Romwe LYR 2550 0 0 0 0 0
Moose HYD 2549 100 0 0 0 0
Duke RKR 2548 100 100 0 0 0
Tartan_Army RFH 2451 100 0 0 0 0
madman THN 2420 0 0 0 0 0
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons ORI 2395 100 100 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2352 100 0 0 0 0
krieg GRN 2336 100 100 100 100 0
agent_of_change ISC 2322 100 0 0 0 0
Devil FED 2316 100 0 0 0 0
DaveC HYD 2188 100 100 100 0 0
Sleepy_cat ZIN 2048 100 100 100 0 0
Vandor RKE 2026 0 0 0 0 0
falrun04 GRN 2000 100 0 0 0 0
Andromedan1 SEL 1948 100 0 0 0 0
Andromedan SEL 1948 0 0 0 0 0
BaldnForty SEL 1862 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1606 0 0 0 0 0
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-- 6 January 2017 UPDATE --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
Grim THA 2638 100 100 100 100 61
krieg GRN 2336 100 100 100 100 39
kingzilla RFH 2730 100 0 0 0 0
captainron THA 2676 100 100 0 0 0
bakija GRN 2637 100 100 0 0 0
Old_School GRN 2623 0 0 0 0 0
Romwe LYR 2550 0 0 0 0 0
Moose HYD 2549 100 0 0 0 0
Duke RKR 2548 100 100 0 0 0
Tartan_Army RFH 2451 100 0 0 0 0
madman THN 2420 0 0 0 0 0
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons ORI 2395 100 100 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2352 100 0 0 0 0
agent_of_change ISC 2322 100 0 0 0 0
Devil FED 2316 100 0 0 0 0
DaveC HYD 2188 100 100 100 0 0
Sleepy_cat ZIN 2048 100 100 100 0 0
Vandor RKE 2026 0 0 0 0 0
falrun04 GRN 2000 100 0 0 0 0
Andromedan1 SEL 1948 100 0 0 0 0
Andromedan SEL 1948 0 0 0 0 0
BaldnForty SEL 1862 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1606 0 0 0 0 0
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-- 31 December 2017 UPDATE --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
krieg GRN 2336 100 100 100 100 49
Grim THA 2638 100 100 100 71 44
Sleepy_cat ZIN 2048 100 100 100 29 7
kingzilla RFH 2730 100 0 0 0 0
captainron THA 2676 100 100 0 0 0
bakija GRN 2637 100 100 0 0 0
Old_School GRN 2623 0 0 0 0 0
Romwe LYR 2550 0 0 0 0 0
Moose HYD 2549 100 0 0 0 0
Duke RKR 2548 100 100 0 0 0
Tartan_Army RFH 2451 100 0 0 0 0
madman THN 2420 0 0 0 0 0
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons ORI 2395 100 100 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2352 100 0 0 0 0
agent_of_change ISC 2322 100 0 0 0 0
Devil FED 2316 100 0 0 0 0
DaveC HYD 2188 100 100 100 0 0
Vandor RKE 2026 0 0 0 0 0
falrun04 GRN 2000 100 0 0 0 0
Andromedan1 SEL 1948 100 0 0 0 0
Andromedan SEL 1948 0 0 0 0 0
BaldnForty SEL 1862 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1606 0 0 0 0 0
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-- ORIGINAL PREDICTION --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
kingzilla RFH 2730 100 77 52 33 19
bakija GRN 2637 84 65 48 25 15
Moose HYD 2549 100 51 38 22 12
Duke RKR 2548 100 49 39 21 11
Grim THA 2638 100 66 37 20 10
captainron THA 2676 63 45 25 13 7
Old_School GRN 2623 57 40 23 14 7
Romwe LYR 2550 63 45 18 8 3
Tartan_Army RFH 2451 100 34 16 7 3
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2352 76 25 15 6 3
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons ORI 2395 43 27 13 5 2
krieg GRN 2336 100 23 12 6 2
agent_of_change ISC 2322 79 29 11 5 2
madman THN 2420 37 28 7 3 1
Devil FED 2316 79 31 9 3 1
DaveC HYD 2188 37 21 6 2 1
Sleepy_cat ZIN 2048 100 42 10 3 1
falrun04 GRN 2000 100 58 13 3 1
Vandor RKE 2026 16 5 2 0 0
Andromedan1 SEL 1948 100 27 4 1 0
Andromedan SEL 1948 24 5 1 0 0
BaldnForty SEL 1862 21 3 1 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1606 21 3 0 0 0