SUPR Tournament Predictions for RAT16Q2
The table below shows my prediction for the RAT16Q2 based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings. The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).
The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings (Appendix D - Time Varying), so they include both TC RPS and player skill.
Results are now shown both for the initial bracket structure, and for subsequent times when various match results are known. The subsequent updates are not carried out on any fixed schedule.
--------------------------------
-- 31 December 2017 UPDATE --
--------------------------------
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
captainron WBS 2587 100 100 100 100 100
The_Rock GRN 2904 100 100 0 0 0
BS KLI 2780 100 100 0 0 0
Old_School1 GRN 2665 100 0 0 0 0
Old_School GRN 2665 0 0 100 0 0
kingzilla KLI 2664 0 0 0 0 0
bakija GRN 2646 100 0 0 0 0
Moose WAX 2603 100 0 0 0 0
Grim LDR 2526 100 100 100 100 0
Duke1 LYR 2491 100 0 0 0 0
Duke LYR 2491 0 0 0 0 0
Romwe RKE 2471 100 0 0 0 0
Lord_Goofy THN 2471 100 0 0 0 0
Tartan_Army KLI 2431 100 100 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ORI 2416 100 100 0 0 0
agent_of_change GRN 2408 0 0 0 0 0
krieg KLI 2324 0 0 0 0 0
Droid LYR 2318 100 100 100 0 0
CrashandBurn ISC 2288 0 0 0 0 0
Devil FED 2287 0 0 0 0 0
madman KLI 2094 0 0 0 0 0
Jando WBS 2085 100 100 0 0 0
DaveC LDR 2066 100 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer1 LYR 1940 0 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer LYR 1940 0 0 0 0 0
JonB RKE 1838 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan AND 1826 100 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1612 0 0 0 0 0
--------------------------------
-- 9 October 2016 UPDATE --
--------------------------------
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
captainron WBS 2587 100 100 100 83 46
Old_School GRN 2665 100 0 100 72 41
Grim LDR 2526 100 100 100 28 8
Droid LYR 2318 100 100 100 17 4
The_Rock GRN 2904 100 100 0 0 0
BS KLI 2780 100 100 0 0 0
kingzilla KLI 2664 0 0 0 0 0
bakija GRN 2646 100 0 0 0 0
Moose WAX 2603 100 0 0 0 0
Duke LYR 2491 100 0 0 0 0
Duke LYR 2491 100 0 0 0 0
Romwe RKE 2471 100 0 0 0 0
Lord_Goofy THN 2471 100 0 0 0 0
Tartan_Army KLI 2431 100 100 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ORI 2416 100 100 0 0 0
agent_of_change GRN 2408 0 0 0 0 0
krieg KLI 2324 0 0 0 0 0
CrashandBurn ISC 2288 0 0 0 0 0
Devil FED 2287 0 0 0 0 0
madman KLI 2094 0 0 0 0 0
Jando WBS 2085 100 100 0 0 0
DaveC LDR 2066 100 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer1 LYR 1940 0 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer LYR 1940 0 0 0 0 0
JonB RKE 1838 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan AND 1826 100 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1612 0 0 0 0 0
--------------------------------
-- 18 SEPTEMBER 2016 UPDATE --
--------------------------------
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
The_Rock GRN 2904 100 100 78 64 48
captainron WBS 2587 100 100 78 64 30
Grim LDR 2526 100 100 100 27 9
Droid LYR 2318 100 100 100 23 5
Tartan_Army KLI 2431 100 100 22 8 4
Jando WBS 2085 100 100 22 13 3
BS KLI 2780 100 100 0 0 0
Old_School GRN 2665 100 0 0 0 0
kingzilla KLI 2664 0 0 0 0 0
bakija GRN 2646 100 0 0 0 0
Moose WAX 2603 100 0 0 0 0
Duke LYR 2491 100 0 0 0 0
Romwe RKE 2471 100 0 0 0 0
Lord_Goofy THN 2471 100 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ORI 2416 100 100 0 0 0
agent_of_change GRN 2408 0 0 0 0 0
krieg KLI 2324 0 0 0 0 0
CrashandBurn ISC 2288 0 0 0 0 0
Devil FED 2287 0 0 0 0 0
madman KLI 2094 0 0 0 0 0
DaveC LDR 2066 100 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer1 LYR 1940 0 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer LYR 1940 0 0 0 0 0
JonB RKE 1838 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan AND 1826 100 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1612 0 0 0 0 0
---------------------------
-- ORIGINAL PREDICTION --
---------------------------
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
The_Rock GRN 2904 100 82 67 49 31
BS KLI 2780 100 84 48 30 16
bakija GRN 2646 100 64 46 21 10
Moose WAX 2603 79 59 40 20 10
captainron WBS 2587 100 86 42 18 9
Old_School GRN 2665 100 59 28 15 8
kingzilla KLI 2664 77 37 18 10 5
Grim LDR 2526 100 69 25 8 3
Tartan_Army KLI 2431 87 62 17 7 2
AdmiralDZZI ORI 2416 80 34 19 7 2
Romwe RKE 2471 79 15 5 1 1
Lord_Goofy THN 2471 71 29 6 3 1
agent_of_change GRN 2408 67 26 11 4 1
krieg KLI 2324 84 26 9 2 1
CrashandBurn ISC 2288 50 10 5 2 1
Duke LYR 2491 50 8 4 2 0
Droid LYR 2318 23 4 1 0 0
Devil FED 2287 78 12 3 1 0
madman KLI 2094 21 8 2 1 0
Jando WBS 2085 33 7 2 0 0
DaveC LDR 2066 22 2 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer1 LYR 1940 21 2 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer LYR 1940 29 7 1 0 0
JonB RKE 1838 20 2 0 0 0
Andromedan AND 1826 16 5 1 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1612 13 2 0 0 0