SUPR Tournament Predictions for RAT15Q2
The table below shows my prediction for the RAT15Q2 based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings. The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).
The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings (Appendix D - Time Varying), so they include both TC RPS and player skill.
Results are now shown both for the initial bracket structure, and for subsequent times when various match results are known. The subsequent updates are not carried out on any fixed schedule.
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-- 23 December UPDATE --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
MetalDog KLI 2592 100 100 100 100 100
The_Rock THA 2947 0 0 0 0 0
kingzilla RFH 2814 100 100 0 0 0
BS KLI 2791 100 100 100 100 0
Old_School ISC 2696 100 0 0 0 0
bakija ZIN 2675 100 100 0 0 0
Moose HYD 2651 100 100 0 0 0
Laszlo HYD 2600 0 0 0 0 0
Duke LYR 2595 100 0 0 0 0
Tartan_Army ORI 2532 100 0 0 0 0
captainron WBS 2514 100 100 100 0 0
Romwe FED 2486 100 0 0 0 0
agent_of_change WBS 2474 0 0 0 0 0
krieg KLI 2424 100 0 0 0 0
CrashandBurn FED 2424 0 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2397 100 100 100 0 0
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons FED 2384 100 0 0 0 0
Devil FED 2327 0 0 0 0 0
DaveC LDR 2120 0 0 0 0 0
V_Raptor ISC 2015 100 0 0 0 0
JonB RKE 1920 100 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1913 100 100 0 0 0
Andromedan ZIN 1794 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1565 0 0 0 0 0
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-- 9 SEPTEMBER UPDATE --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
BS KLI 2791 100 100 100 100 66
MetalDog KLI 2592 100 100 100 62 24
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2397 100 100 100 39 10
The_Rock THA 2947 0 0 0 0 0
kingzilla RFH 2814 100 100 0 0 0
Old_School ISC 2696 100 0 0 0 0
bakija ZIN 2675 100 100 0 0 0
Moose HYD 2651 100 100 0 0 0
Laszlo HYD 2600 0 0 0 0 0
Duke LYR 2595 100 0 0 0 0
Tartan_Army ORI 2532 100 0 0 0 0
captainron WBS 2514 100 100 100 0 0
Romwe FED 2486 100 0 0 0 0
agent_of_change WBS 2474 0 0 0 0 0
krieg KLI 2424 100 0 0 0 0
CrashandBurn FED 2424 0 0 0 0 0
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons FED 2384 100 0 0 0 0
Devil FED 2327 0 0 0 0 0
DaveC LDR 2120 0 0 0 0 0
V_Raptor ISC 2015 100 0 0 0 0
JonB RKE 1920 100 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1913 100 100 0 0 0
Andromedan ZIN 1794 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1565 0 0 0 0 0
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-- 30 JUNE UPDATE --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
BS KLI 2791 100 100 90 58 35
bakija ZIN 2675 100 100 59 34 18
captainron WBS 2514 100 100 100 40 18
Moose HYD 2651 100 100 64 32 16
The_Rock THA 2947 48 45 21 12 6
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2397 100 100 36 13 5
MetalDog KLI 2592 52 37 17 9 4
kingzilla RFH 2814 100 100 0 0 0
Old_School ISC 2696 100 0 0 0 0
Laszlo HYD 2600 0 0 0 0 0
Duke LYR 2595 100 0 0 0 0
Tartan_Army ORI 2532 100 0 0 0 0
Romwe FED 2486 100 0 0 0 0
agent_of_change WBS 2474 0 0 0 0 0
krieg KLI 2424 100 0 0 0 0
CrashandBurn FED 2424 0 0 0 0 0
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons FED 2384 100 0 0 0 0
Devil FED 2327 0 0 0 0 0
DaveC LDR 2120 0 0 0 0 0
V_Raptor ISC 2015 100 18 2 0 0
JonB RKE 1920 100 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1913 100 100 10 2 0
Andromedan ZIN 1794 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1565 0 0 0 0 0
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-- 25 MAY UPDATE --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
kingzilla RFH 2814 100 93 54 32 17
BS KLI 2791 100 65 51 29 17
bakija ZIN 2675 93 77 46 28 14
Moose HYD 2651 100 52 33 17 9
The_Rock THA 2947 49 45 24 15 8
Old_School ISC 2696 63 33 22 11 6
captainron WBS 2514 81 58 29 13 6
Laszlo HYD 2600 68 27 19 11 5
MetalDog KLI 2592 51 38 19 9 4
Duke LYR 2595 100 53 19 7 3
krieg KLI 2424 83 65 21 7 3
Tartan_Army ORI 2532 100 34 14 6 2
agent_of_change WBS 2474 37 15 9 4 2
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2397 69 35 14 5 2
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons FED 2384 100 22 9 2 1
Romwe FED 2486 32 8 5 1 0
CrashandBurn FED 2424 31 12 3 1 0
Devil FED 2327 19 8 2 0 0
DaveC LDR 2120 0 0 0 0 0
V_Raptor ISC 2015 100 17 3 1 0
JonB RKE 1920 100 7 1 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1913 100 29 4 1 0
Andromedan ZIN 1794 17 6 1 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1565 7 1 0 0 0
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-- 25 MAY INITIAL PREDICTION --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
BS KLI 2791 100 64 51 30 18
bakija ZIN 2675 94 78 46 28 15
kingzilla RFH 2814 83 77 45 26 13
Moose HYD 2651 100 52 34 18 10
The_Rock THA 2947 48 44 24 15 8
captainron WBS 2514 81 58 33 15 7
Old_School ISC 2696 64 33 22 10 6
Laszlo HYD 2600 68 27 19 11 6
MetalDog KLI 2592 52 38 19 9 4
Duke LYR 2595 100 54 19 7 3
Tartan_Army ORI 2532 100 34 17 7 3
krieg KLI 2424 82 64 21 7 3
agent_of_change WBS 2474 36 15 9 4 2
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2397 69 34 13 5 2
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons FED 2384 100 21 8 2 1
Romwe FED 2486 32 8 4 1 0
CrashandBurn FED 2424 31 11 3 1 0
Devil FED 2327 19 8 3 1 0
DaveC LDR 2120 17 10 1 0 0
V_Raptor ISC 2015 100 17 3 1 0
JonB RKE 1920 100 13 2 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1913 100 28 4 1 0
Andromedan ZIN 1794 18 8 1 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1565 6 1 0 0 0