SUPR Tournament Predictions for RAT15Q1
The table below shows my prediction for the RAT15Q1 based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings. The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).
The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings (Appendix D - Time Varying), so they include both TC RPS and player skill.
Results are now shown both for the initial bracket structure, and for subsequent times when various match results are known. The subsequent updates are not carried out on any fixed schedule.
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-- 25 MAY FINAL UPDATE --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
Laszlo KLI 2581 100 100 100 100 100
BS KLI 2793 100 100 100 0 0
kingzilla HYD 2724 100 100 0 0 0
Old_School HYD 2688 0 0 0 0 0
bakija ZIN 2671 0 0 0 0 0
Moose WBS 2648 0 0 0 0 0
Grim ISC 2640 100 100 100 100 0
Tartan_Army HYD 2640 0 0 0 0 0
MetalDog HYD 2607 100 0 0 0 0
Duke LYR 2603 100 0 0 0 0
captainron WBS 2513 100 0 0 0 0
Romwe1 HYD 2483 0 0 0 0 0
Romwe HYD 2483 0 0 100 0 0
agent_of_change HYD 2472 0 0 0 0 0
krieg KLI 2432 100 100 0 0 0
Gregg WBS 2421 100 100 0 0 0
CrashandBurn RKE 2421 100 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ORI 2406 0 0 0 0 0
Droid WAX 2404 0 0 0 0 0
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons FED 2384 0 0 0 0 0
Sir_GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 2320 0 0 0 0 0
Vandor RKE 2106 100 0 0 0 0
The_Geek RKR 2091 100 100 0 0 0
V_Raptor GRN 2030 100 0 0 0 0
Hemlock WAX 2009 100 100 0 0 0
JonB RKE 1925 100 0 0 0 0
BaldnForty SEL 1908 100 0 0 0 0
Andromedan AND 1814 0 0 0 0 0
Klenotic ZIN 1670 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1555 0 0 0 0 0
Sebastian FED 1308 0 0 0 0 0
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-- 31 MARCH PREDICTION UPDATE --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
Laszlo KLI 2581 100 100 100 100 37
Grim ISC 2640 100 100 100 52 34
BS KLI 2793 100 100 100 48 30
kingzilla HYD 2724 100 100 0 0 0
Old_School HYD 2688 0 0 0 0 0
bakija ZIN 2671 0 0 0 0 0
Moose WBS 2648 0 0 0 0 0
Tartan_Army HYD 2640 0 0 0 0 0
MetalDog HYD 2607 100 0 0 0 0
Duke LYR 2603 100 0 0 0 0
captainron WBS 2513 100 0 0 0 0
Romwe1 HYD 2483 0 0 0 0 0
Romwe HYD 2483 0 0 100 0 0
agent_of_change HYD 2472 0 0 0 0 0
krieg KLI 2432 100 100 0 0 0
Gregg WBS 2421 100 100 0 0 0
CrashandBurn RKE 2421 100 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ORI 2406 0 0 0 0 0
Droid WAX 2404 0 0 0 0 0
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons FED 2384 0 0 0 0 0
Sir_GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 2320 0 0 0 0 0
Vandor RKE 2106 100 0 0 0 0
The_Geek RKR 2091 100 100 0 0 0
V_Raptor GRN 2030 100 0 0 0 0
Hemlock WAX 2009 100 100 0 0 0
JonB RKE 1925 100 0 0 0 0
BaldnForty SEL 1908 100 0 0 0 0
Andromedan AND 1814 0 0 0 0 0
Klenotic ZIN 1670 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1555 0 0 0 0 0
Sebastian FED 1308 0 0 0 0 0
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-- 31 JANUARY PREDICTION UPDATE --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
BS KLI 2820 100 100 67 38 27
kingzilla HYD 2753 100 79 55 28 20
Laszlo KLI 2531 100 100 56 37 13
Grim ISC 2553 100 86 38 17 11
Gregg WBS 2474 100 85 43 27 11
MetalDog HYD 2650 77 65 27 14 9
krieg KLI 2450 100 67 52 24 7
CrashandBurn RKE 2408 100 33 19 5 1
Hemlock WAX 1852 100 100 29 7 1
Old_School HYD 2742 0 0 0 0 0
bakija ZIN 2721 0 0 0 0 0
Moose WBS 2704 0 0 0 0 0
Tartan_Army HYD 2675 0 0 0 0 0
Duke LYR 2616 100 0 0 0 0
captainron WBS 2554 100 0 0 0 0
agent_of_change HYD 2527 0 0 0 0 0
Romwe HYD 2523 0 0 0 0 0
Droid WAX 2471 0 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ORI 2448 0 0 0 0 0
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons FED 2435 0 0 0 0 0
Devil FED 2378 23 14 3 1 0
Sir_GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 2329 0 0 0 0 0
V_Raptor GRN 2086 100 21 6 1 0
Vandor RKE 2018 100 0 0 0 0
The_Geek RKR 2017 100 21 3 1 0
JonB RKE 1923 100 14 2 0 0
BaldnForty SEL 1904 100 15 1 0 0
Andromedan AND 1828 0 0 0 0 0
Klenotic ZIN 1619 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1512 0 0 0 0 0
Sebastian FED 1332 0 0 0 0 0
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-- 2 JANUARY INITIAL PREDICTION --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
kingzilla HYD 2753 64 51 40 22 14
Old_School HYD 2742 67 46 28 22 12
Tartan_Army HYD 2675 91 57 31 23 12
bakija ZIN 2721 86 54 30 18 11
BS KLI 2820 54 35 20 12 8
MetalDog HYD 2650 76 37 18 10 6
Moose WBS 2704 46 28 15 9 5
Droid WAX 2471 57 41 34 14 5
Grim ISC 2553 46 39 20 8 4
Laszlo KLI 2531 91 37 17 10 4
Romwe HYD 2523 36 24 16 7 3
Gregg WBS 2474 61 26 12 7 3
krieg KLI 2450 43 27 22 9 3
captainron WBS 2554 52 20 9 5 2
agent_of_change HYD 2527 48 18 7 3 2
Duke LYR 2616 33 17 7 4 1
AdmiralDZZI ORI 2448 54 45 15 4 1
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons FED 2435 43 16 12 3 1
Sir_GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 2329 39 16 6 3 1
CrashandBurn RKE 2408 57 16 11 2 0
Devil FED 2378 24 5 1 0 0
V_Raptor GRN 2086 100 25 7 2 0
Vandor RKE 2018 69 28 5 1 0
The_Geek RKR 2017 15 3 0 0 0
JonB RKE 1923 91 15 2 0 0
BaldnForty SEL 1904 9 2 0 0 0
Hemlock WAX 1852 87 50 13 2 0
Andromedan AND 1828 31 20 4 0 0
Klenotic ZIN 1619 9 1 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1512 9 1 0 0 0
Sebastian FED 1332 13 2 0 0 0