SUPR Tournament Predictions for RAT14Q2
The table below shows my prediction for the RAT14Q2 based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings. The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).
The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings (Appendix D - Time Varying), so they include both TC RPS and player skill.
Results are now shown both for the initial bracket structure, and for subsequent times when various match results are known. The subsequent updates are not carried out on any fixed schedule.
--------------------------------
-- 25 NOVEMBER PREDICTION --
--------------------------------
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
Sir_Krotar ISC 2700 100 100 100 100 100
The_Rock GRN 2912 100 0 0 0 0
BS KLI 2802 100 100 100 0 0
Old_School LYR 2730 100 100 0 0 0
kingzilla HYD 2698 100 100 100 100 0
bakija GRN 2685 100 0 0 0 0
Moose ZIN 2661 0 0 0 0 0
MetalDog LYR 2584 100 100 100 0 0
Tartan_Army HYD 2533 100 0 0 0 0
captainron WBS 2524 0 0 0 0 0
Lord_Goofy LYR 2494 0 0 0 0 0
Romwe RFH 2486 0 0 0 0 0
krieg RKR 2452 0 0 0 0 0
Laszlo HYD 2426 0 0 0 0 0
Spartan ISC 2420 100 100 0 0 0
CrashandBurn WAX 2392 100 100 0 0 0
Duke ZIN 2391 100 0 0 0 0
Droid WAX 2391 100 100 0 0 0
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons WBS 2377 0 0 0 0 0
BigLizard GRN 2332 100 0 0 0 0
Sir_GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 2291 0 0 0 0 0
Devil WBS 2251 100 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2241 0 0 0 0 0
DaveC LDR 2127 100 0 0 0 0
V_Raptor ISC 2041 0 0 0 0 0
The_Geek WAX 2002 0 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1926 0 0 0 0 0
princeton GRN 1890 0 0 0 0 0
BaldnForty ISC 1883 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan RKE 1860 100 0 0 0 0
blackwind LYR 1396 0 0 0 0 0
Ogar KLI 1340 0 0 0 0 0
--------------------------------
-- 30 SEPTEMBER PREDICTION --
--------------------------------
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
kingzilla HYD 2698 100 100 100 100 58
Sir_Krotar ISC 2700 100 100 100 68 32
Spartan ISC 2420 100 100 54 18 6
MetalDog LYR 2584 100 100 46 14 5
The_Rock GRN 2912 100 0 0 0 0
BS KLI 2802 100 100 100 0 0
Old_School LYR 2730 100 100 0 0 0
bakija GRN 2685 100 0 0 0 0
Moose ZIN 2661 0 0 0 0 0
Tartan_Army HYD 2533 100 0 0 0 0
captainron WBS 2524 0 0 0 0 0
Lord_Goofy LYR 2494 0 0 0 0 0
Romwe RFH 2486 0 0 0 0 0
krieg RKR 2452 0 0 0 0 0
Laszlo HYD 2426 0 0 0 0 0
CrashandBurn WAX 2392 100 100 0 0 0
Duke ZIN 2391 100 0 0 0 0
Droid WAX 2391 100 100 0 0 0
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons WBS 2377 0 0 0 0 0
BigLizard GRN 2332 100 0 0 0 0
Sir_GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 2291 0 0 0 0 0
Devil WBS 2251 100 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2241 0 0 0 0 0
DaveC LDR 2127 100 0 0 0 0
V_Raptor ISC 2041 0 0 0 0 0
The_Geek WAX 2002 0 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1926 0 0 0 0 0
princeton GRN 1890 0 0 0 0 0
BaldnForty ISC 1883 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan RKE 1860 100 0 0 0 0
blackwind LYR 1396 0 0 0 0 0
Ogar KLI 1340 0 0 0 0 0
--------------------------------
-- 13 SEPTEMBER PREDICTION --
--------------------------------
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
The_Rock GRN 2966 100 76 64 41 34
kingzilla HYD 2482 100 100 100 100 32
Sir_Krotar ISC 2700 100 100 100 49 29
MetalDog LYR 2545 100 100 21 6 2
Spartan ISC 2451 100 24 14 5 2
BS KLI 2819 100 100 100 0 0
Old_School LYR 2771 100 100 0 0 0
Moose ZIN 2745 0 0 0 0 0
bakija GRN 2721 100 0 0 0 0
captainron WBS 2543 0 0 0 0 0
Lord_Goofy LYR 2542 0 0 0 0 0
Romwe RFH 2513 0 0 0 0 0
Tartan_Army HYD 2475 100 0 0 0 0
Droid WAX 2473 100 100 0 0 0
krieg RKR 2463 0 0 0 0 0
Laszlo HYD 2429 0 0 0 0 0
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons WBS 2401 0 0 0 0 0
CrashandBurn WAX 2400 100 100 0 0 0
BigLizard GRN 2357 100 0 0 0 0
Sir_GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 2317 0 0 0 0 0
Devil WBS 2290 100 0 0 0 0
Duke ZIN 2284 100 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2260 0 0 0 0 0
DaveC LDR 2189 100 0 0 0 0
The_Geek WAX 2060 0 0 0 0 0
V_Raptor ISC 2051 0 0 0 0 0
princeton GRN 1879 0 0 0 0 0
BaldnForty ISC 1873 0 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1819 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan RKE 1792 100 0 0 0 0
blackwind LYR 1391 0 0 0 0 0
Ogar KLI 1306 0 0 0 0 0
---------------------------
-- 20 JULY PREDICTION --
---------------------------
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
The_Rock GRN 2966 88 67 57 39 28
BS KLI 2819 100 96 66 46 22
Sir_Krotar ISC 2700 100 100 60 30 19
Old_School LYR 2771 100 100 40 16 8
kingzilla HYD 2482 100 100 61 25 8
CrashandBurn WAX 2400 100 100 34 14 4
MetalDog LYR 2545 100 100 24 7 3
Droid WAX 2473 100 47 19 8 3
Spartan ISC 2451 100 30 18 7 3
Duke ZIN 2284 100 53 21 7 2
Moose ZIN 2745 0 0 0 0 0
bakija GRN 2721 100 0 0 0 0
captainron WBS 2543 0 0 0 0 0
Lord_Goofy LYR 2542 0 0 0 0 0
Romwe RFH 2513 0 0 0 0 0
Tartan_Army HYD 2475 100 0 0 0 0
krieg RKR 2463 0 0 0 0 0
Laszlo HYD 2429 0 0 0 0 0
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons WBS 2401 0 0 0 0 0
BigLizard GRN 2357 100 0 0 0 0
Sir_GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 2317 0 0 0 0 0
Devil WBS 2290 100 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2260 0 0 0 0 0
DaveC LDR 2189 100 0 0 0 0
The_Geek WAX 2060 12 2 1 0 0
V_Raptor ISC 2051 0 0 0 0 0
princeton GRN 1879 0 0 0 0 0
BaldnForty ISC 1873 0 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1819 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan RKE 1792 100 4 0 0 0
blackwind LYR 1391 0 0 0 0 0
Ogar KLI 1306 0 0 0 0 0
---------------------------
-- 11 JULY PREDICTION --
---------------------------
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
The_Rock GRN 2921 87 64 53 39 28
BS KLI 2786 100 95 64 44 22
Sir_Krotar ISC 2666 100 63 40 21 13
kingzilla HYD 2488 100 100 60 26 10
Old_School LYR 2744 100 61 29 11 5
Spartan ISC 2456 100 33 19 8 5
CrashandBurn WAX 2394 100 100 35 14 5
MetalDog LYR 2540 100 100 27 10 4
Droid WAX 2491 100 49 20 9 4
Tartan_Army HYD 2436 100 37 18 6 3
Duke ZIN 2267 100 51 20 7 2
Devil WBS 2272 100 39 13 4 1
Moose ZIN 2731 0 0 0 0 0
bakija GRN 2704 100 0 0 0 0
Lord_Goofy LYR 2516 0 0 0 0 0
captainron WBS 2515 0 0 0 0 0
Romwe RFH 2489 0 0 0 0 0
krieg RKR 2419 0 0 0 0 0
Laszlo HYD 2376 0 0 0 0 0
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons WBS 2374 0 0 0 0 0
BigLizard GRN 2370 100 0 0 0 0
Sir_GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 2322 0 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2247 0 0 0 0 0
DaveC LDR 2144 100 0 0 0 0
The_Geek WAX 2052 13 3 1 0 0
V_Raptor ISC 2039 0 0 0 0 0
princeton GRN 1895 0 0 0 0 0
BaldnForty ISC 1886 0 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1846 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan RKE 1806 100 5 0 0 0
blackwind LYR 1459 0 0 0 0 0
Ogar KLI 1352 0 0 0 0 0
---------------------------
-- 5 JULY PREDICTION --
---------------------------
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
The_Rock GRN 2921 88 64 52 37 26
BS KLI 2786 100 96 54 37 19
Sir_Krotar ISC 2666 100 62 39 20 12
bakija GRN 2704 100 63 32 22 11
kingzilla HYD 2488 100 100 60 21 8
Old_School LYR 2744 100 62 30 12 5
Droid WAX 2491 100 49 21 9 4
Spartan ISC 2456 100 34 20 9 4
MetalDog LYR 2540 100 44 12 4 2
Tartan_Army HYD 2436 100 38 18 6 2
CrashandBurn WAX 2394 100 37 14 5 2
BigLizard GRN 2370 100 56 15 6 2
Romwe RFH 2489 51 19 7 2 1
Duke ZIN 2267 100 51 19 5 1
Moose ZIN 2731 0 0 0 0 0
Lord_Goofy LYR 2516 0 0 0 0 0
captainron WBS 2515 0 0 0 0 0
krieg RKR 2419 0 0 0 0 0
Laszlo HYD 2376 0 0 0 0 0
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons WBS 2374 0 0 0 0 0
Sir_GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 2322 0 0 0 0 0
Devil WBS 2272 49 19 6 2 0
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2247 0 0 0 0 0
DaveC LDR 2144 100 0 0 0 0
The_Geek WAX 2052 13 2 1 0 0
V_Raptor ISC 2039 0 0 0 0 0
princeton GRN 1895 0 0 0 0 0
BaldnForty ISC 1886 0 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1846 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan RKE 1806 100 4 0 0 0
blackwind LYR 1459 0 0 0 0 0
Ogar KLI 1352 0 0 0 0 0
---------------------------
-- 18 JUNE PREDICTION --
---------------------------
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
The_Rock GRN 2929 88 64 51 37 26
BS KLI 2791 100 88 50 35 18
bakija GRN 2715 100 65 35 24 12
Sir_Krotar ISC 2659 100 64 39 18 10
Moose ZIN 2739 75 27 20 12 7
Old_School LYR 2771 100 64 32 13 6
kingzilla HYD 2455 100 86 47 16 6
Droid WAX 2472 60 34 17 7 3
captainron WBS 2530 40 26 15 6 2
Tartan_Army HYD 2409 100 36 17 5 2
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons WBS 2399 56 36 9 4 2
CrashandBurn WAX 2370 100 35 12 6 2
MetalDog LYR 2541 92 38 8 3 1
Lord_Goofy LYR 2538 59 22 11 3 1
Romwe RFH 2494 49 17 6 2 1
Spartan ISC 2420 25 7 4 2 1
BigLizard GRN 2362 44 26 7 3 1
Devil WBS 2257 51 18 6 2 1
krieg RKR 2474 0 0 0 0 0
Laszlo HYD 2407 0 0 0 0 0
Sir_GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 2326 0 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2263 0 0 0 0 0
Duke ZIN 2228 41 19 8 2 0
DaveC LDR 2139 100 14 3 1 0
The_Geek WAX 2055 12 1 0 0 0
V_Raptor ISC 2035 0 0 0 0 0
BaldnForty ISC 1914 69 11 2 0 0
princeton GRN 1900 0 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1857 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan RKE 1759 31 1 0 0 0
Ogar KLI 1393 8 1 0 0 0
blackwind LYR 1196 0 0 0 0 0
---------------------------
-- 15 JUNE PREDICTION --
---------------------------
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
The_Rock GRN 2913 86 61 48 34 23
BS KLI 2791 100 88 51 35 18
Bakija GRN 2708 100 65 35 23 13
Sir_Krotar ISC 2649 100 67 42 19 11
Moose ZIN 2735 76 30 21 13 7
Old_School LYR 2765 100 64 32 13 6
captainron WBS 2523 40 27 17 6 3
Droid WAX 2466 60 34 19 8 3
kingzilla HYD 2455 48 42 23 8 3
Krieg RKR 2463 52 40 19 7 2
CrashAndBurn WAX 2361 100 35 13 6 2
MetalDog LYR 2535 92 39 9 3 1
Lord_Goofy LYR 2528 59 20 10 3 1
Romwe RFH 2487 51 18 6 2 1
Spartan ISC 2413 24 8 5 2 1
Tartan_Army HYD 2408 79 29 13 4 1
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons WBS 2390 56 35 9 4 1
BigLizard GRN 2356 44 25 7 3 1
Devil WBS 2253 50 18 6 2 1
Duke ZIN 2223 41 18 8 2 1
Laszlo HYD 2396 0 0 0 0 0
Sir_GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 2324 0 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2257 0 0 0 0 0
DaveC LDR 2133 100 18 4 1 0
The_Geek WAX 2051 14 2 1 0 0
V_Raptor ISC 2030 0 0 0 0 0
BaldnForty ISC 1911 67 11 2 0 0
Princeton GRN 1905 0 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1860 21 4 1 0 0
Andromedan RKE 1764 33 1 0 0 0
Ogar KLI 1406 8 1 0 0 0
blackwind LYR 1196 0 0 0 0 0
-----------------------------------
-- 8 JUNE INITIAL PREDICTION --
-----------------------------------
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
The_Rock GRN 2913 87 62 49 36 25
Bakija GRN 2708 99 74 44 29 15
BS KLI 2791 73 64 37 25 13
Sir_Krotar ISC 2649 71 48 30 14 9
Moose ZIN 2735 76 29 20 13 8
Old_School LYR 2765 81 52 28 11 5
captainron WBS 2523 39 26 16 7 3
Droid WAX 2466 61 35 19 8 3
Krieg RKR 2463 51 37 17 7 3
kingzilla HYD 2455 49 40 22 8 3
Tartan_Army HYD 2408 79 32 16 5 2
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons WBS 2390 56 35 9 4 2
MetalDog LYR 2535 92 39 9 4 1
Lord_Goofy LYR 2528 59 21 11 4 1
Romwe RFH 2487 50 22 9 3 1
Spartan ISC 2413 24 8 4 2 1
Laszlo HYD 2396 27 22 8 4 1
CrashAndBurn WAX 2361 42 15 6 3 1
BigLizard GRN 2356 44 25 7 3 1
Sir_GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 2324 29 17 7 2 1
Devil WBS 2253 50 22 8 2 1
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2257 58 11 4 2 0
Duke ZIN 2223 41 18 8 2 0
DaveC LDR 2133 55 10 2 0 0
The_Geek WAX 2051 13 2 1 0 0
V_Raptor ISC 2030 45 14 4 1 0
BaldnForty ISC 1911 68 12 2 0 0
Princeton GRN 1905 19 4 1 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1860 21 4 1 0 0
Andromedan RKE 1764 32 2 0 0 0
Ogar KLI 1406 8 1 0 0 0
blackwind LYR 1196 1 0 0 0 0