SUPR Tournament Predictions for RAT14Q1
The table below shows my prediction for the RAT14Q1 based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings. The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).
The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings (Appendix D - Time Varying), so they include both TC RPS and player skill.
Results are now shown both for the initial bracket structure, and for subsequent times when various match results are known. The subsequent updates are not carried out on any fixed schedule.
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-- 25 NOVEMBER PREDICTION --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
The_Rock HYD 2912 100 100 100 100 100
Old_School THA 2730 100 100 100 0 0
Von_Nasty LYR 2706 100 0 0 0 0
Sir_Krotar ISC 2700 100 0 0 0 0
bakija GRN 2685 100 0 0 0 0
Moose WAX 2661 100 100 100 100 0
MetalDog RFH 2584 100 100 100 0 0
captainron1 WBS 2524 100 0 0 0 0
Lord_Goofy WAX 2494 100 100 0 0 0
agent_of_change1 WBS 2483 100 0 0 0 0
agent_of_change WBS 2483 100 100 0 0 0
Grim LDR 2454 100 100 0 0 0
krieg GRN 2452 100 100 0 0 0
Gregg LYR 2431 0 0 0 0 0
Laszlo HYD 2426 0 0 0 0 0
Spartan RKR 2420 0 0 0 0 0
CrashandBurn WAX 2392 100 0 0 0 0
Duke RKR 2391 0 0 0 0 0
Droid1 WAX 2391 0 0 0 0 0
Duke1 RKR 2391 0 0 0 0 0
Droid WAX 2391 100 0 0 0 0
Sir_GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 2291 0 0 0 0 0
Devil RKR 2251 0 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2241 0 0 0 0 0
DaveC HYD 2127 0 0 0 0 0
V_Raptor GRN 2041 0 0 0 0 0
randyblair KLI 1946 100 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1926 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan SEL 1860 0 0 0 0 0
Scrappinak THA 1752 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1545 0 0 0 0 0
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-- 18 JUNE PREDICTION --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
The_Rock HYD 2929 100 100 100 100 69
Moose WAX 2739 100 100 100 100 31
Old_School THA 2771 100 100 100 0 0
Von_Nasty LYR 2723 100 0 0 0 0
bakija GRN 2715 100 0 0 0 0
Grim LDR 2673 100 100 0 0 0
Sir_Krotar ISC 2659 100 0 0 0 0
MetalDog RFH 2541 100 100 0 0 0
Lord_Goofy WAX 2538 100 100 0 0 0
captainron1 WBS 2530 100 0 0 0 0
captainron WBS 2530 0 0 0 0 0
agent_of_change1 WBS 2519 100 0 0 0 0
agent_of_change WBS 2519 100 100 0 0 0
krieg GRN 2474 100 100 0 0 0
Droid1 WAX 2472 0 0 0 0 0
Droid WAX 2472 100 0 0 0 0
Gregg LYR 2445 0 0 0 0 0
Spartan RKR 2420 0 0 0 0 0
Laszlo HYD 2407 0 0 0 0 0
CrashandBurn WAX 2370 100 0 0 0 0
Sir_GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 2326 0 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2263 0 0 0 0 0
Devil RKR 2257 0 0 0 0 0
Duke RKR 2228 0 0 100 0 0
Duke1 RKR 2228 0 0 0 0 0
DaveC HYD 2139 0 0 0 0 0
V_Raptor GRN 2035 0 0 0 0 0
randyblair KLI 1949 100 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1857 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan SEL 1759 0 0 0 0 0
Scrappinak THA 1747 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1540 0 0 0 0 0
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-- 8 JUNE PREDICTION --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
The_Rock HYD 2913 100 100 85 63 43
Moose WAX 2735 100 100 100 61 29
Old_School THA 2765 100 100 100 39 13
Agent_of_Change WBS 2502 100 100 100 32 13
Grim LDR 2651 100 100 15 5 2
Von_Nasty LYR 2710 100 0 0 0 0
Bakija GRN 2708 100 0 0 0 0
Sir_Krotar ISC 2649 100 0 0 0 0
MetalDog RFH 2535 100 100 0 0 0
Lord_Goofy WAX 2528 100 100 0 0 0
captainron1 WBS 2523 100 0 0 0 0
captainron WBS 2523 0 0 0 0 0
agent_of_change1 WBS 2502 100 0 0 0 0
Droid1 WAX 2466 0 0 0 0 0
Droid WAX 2466 100 0 0 0 0
Krieg GRN 2463 100 100 0 0 0
Gregg LYR 2435 0 0 0 0 0
Spartan RKR 2413 0 0 0 0 0
Laszlo HYD 2396 0 0 0 0 0
CrashAndBurn WAX 2361 100 0 0 0 0
Sir_GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 2324 0 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2257 0 0 0 0 0
Devil RKR 2253 0 0 0 0 0
Duke RKR 2223 0 0 0 0 0
Duke1 RKR 2223 0 0 0 0 0
DaveC HYD 2133 0 0 0 0 0
V_Raptor GRN 2030 0 0 0 0 0
randyblair KLI 1950 100 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1860 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan SEL 1764 0 0 0 0 0
Scrappinak THA 1754 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1553 0 0 0 0 0
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-- 5 APRIL PREDICTION* --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
The_Rock HYD 2966 100 100 86 65 46
Moose WAX 2736 100 100 100 59 26
Old_School THA 2787 100 100 100 41 13
Agent_of_Change WBS 2528 100 100 100 30 13
Grim LDR 2728 100 100 14 5 2
Von_Nasty LYR 2744 100 0 0 0 0
Bakija GRN 2732 100 0 0 0 0
Sir_Krotar ISC 2652 100 0 0 0 0
MetalDog RFH 2566 100 100 0 0 0
Lord_Goofy WAX 2558 100 100 0 0 0
captainron1 WBS 2550 100 0 0 0 0
captainron WBS 2550 0 0 0 0 0
agent_of_change1 WBS 2528 100 0 0 0 0
Droid1 WAX 2500 0 0 0 0 0
Droid WAX 2500 100 0 0 0 0
Krieg GRN 2491 100 100 0 0 0
Gregg LYR 2470 0 0 0 0 0
Spartan RKR 2455 0 0 0 0 0
Laszlo HYD 2436 0 0 0 0 0
CrashAndBurn WAX 2420 100 0 0 0 0
GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 2403 0 0 0 0 0
Devil RKR 2290 0 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2281 0 0 0 0 0
Duke RKR 2206 0 0 0 0 0
Duke1 RKR 2206 0 0 0 0 0
DaveC HYD 2163 0 0 0 0 0
V_Raptor GRN 2055 0 0 0 0 0
randyblair KLI 1948 100 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1849 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan SEL 1758 0 0 0 0 0
Scrappinak THA 1736 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1521 0 0 0 0 0
* Corrected player ratings.
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-- 30 MARCH PREDICTION --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
The_Rock HYD 2874 100 100 96 78 55
Moose WAX 2647 100 100 100 57 23
Old_School THA 2735 100 100 100 43 15
Agent_of_Change WBS 2279 100 100 100 21 7
Von_Nasty LYR 2724 100 0 0 0 0
Bakija GRN 2683 100 0 0 0 0
Sir_Krotar ISC 2575 100 0 0 0 0
Lord_Goofy WAX 2524 100 100 0 0 0
captainron1 WBS 2511 100 0 0 0 0
captainron WBS 2511 0 0 0 0 0
MetalDog RFH 2485 100 100 0 0 0
Gregg LYR 2442 0 0 0 0 0
Droid1 WAX 2423 0 0 0 0 0
Droid WAX 2423 100 0 0 0 0
Krieg GRN 2420 100 100 0 0 0
Laszlo HYD 2395 0 0 0 0 0
Spartan RKR 2380 0 0 0 0 0
CrashAndBurn WAX 2376 100 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2290 0 0 0 0 0
agent_of_change1 WBS 2279 100 0 0 0 0
Duke RKR 2208 0 0 0 0 0
Duke1 RKR 2208 0 0 0 0 0
Devil RKR 2204 0 0 0 0 0
DaveC HYD 2167 0 0 0 0 0
GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 2131 0 0 0 0 0
V_Raptor GRN 2023 0 0 0 0 0
Grim LDR 2021 100 100 4 1 0
randyblair KLI 1998 100 0 0 0 0
Scrappinak THA 1993 0 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1869 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan SEL 1798 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1617 0 0 0 0 0
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-- 2 MARCH PREDICTION --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
The_Rock HYD 2874 100 100 74 60 43
Old_School THA 2735 100 100 52 28 12
Moose WAX 2647 100 64 41 24 10
Sir_Krotar ISC 2575 100 82 25 17 9
Krieg GRN 2420 100 100 40 16 6
Von_Nasty LYR 2724 100 48 23 11 5
Lord_Goofy WAX 2524 100 52 25 13 5
Agent_of_Change WBS 2279 100 100 44 10 4
CrashAndBurn WAX 2376 100 54 35 7 3
MetalDog RFH 2485 100 46 22 5 2
Droid WAX 2423 100 36 19 8 2
Bakija GRN 2683 100 0 0 0 0
captainron WBS 2511 100 0 0 0 0
Gregg LYR 2442 0 0 0 0 0
Droid1 WAX 2423 0 0 0 0 0
Laszlo HYD 2395 0 0 0 0 0
Spartan RKR 2380 0 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2290 0 0 0 0 0
agent_of_change1 WBS 2279 100 0 0 0 0
Duke RKR 2208 0 0 0 0 0
Duke1 RKR 2208 0 0 0 0 0
Devil RKR 2204 0 0 0 0 0
DaveC HYD 2167 0 0 0 0 0
GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 2131 0 0 0 0 0
V_Raptor GRN 2023 0 0 0 0 0
Grim LDR 2021 100 18 1 0 0
randyblair KLI 1998 100 0 0 0 0
Scrappinak THA 1993 0 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1869 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan SEL 1798 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1617 0 0 0 0 0
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-- INITIAL PREDICTION --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
The_Rock HYD 2874 81 66 49 36 26
Bakija GRN 2683 75 54 35 19 11
Sir_Krotar ISC 2575 81 64 29 18 11
Moose WAX 2647 58 39 29 17 8
captainron WBS 2511 92 61 30 16 7
Von_Nasty LYR 2724 100 53 27 15 6
Lord_Goofy WAX 2524 80 42 24 13 5
Old_School THA 2735 70 28 15 9 4
Krieg GRN 2420 65 50 23 10 4
Droid WAX 2423 61 24 15 7 3
CrashAndBurn WAX 2376 67 41 19 5 3
MetalDog RFH 2485 82 39 17 5 2
Gregg LYR 2442 35 24 9 3 1
Droid1 WAX 2423 19 13 6 3 1
Laszlo HYD 2395 25 15 8 2 1
Spartan RKR 2380 39 16 9 3 1
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2290 42 22 10 4 1
agent_of_change1 WBS 2279 60 13 6 3 1
Agent_of_Change WBS 2279 60 20 9 3 1
Duke RKR 2208 40 12 5 1 0
Duke1 RKR 2208 40 8 3 1 0
Devil RKR 2204 33 16 5 1 0
DaveC HYD 2167 30 10 3 1 0
GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 2131 73 24 6 2 0
V_Raptor GRN 2023 20 5 1 0 0
Grim LDR 2021 27 6 1 0 0
randyblair KLI 1998 72 19 4 1 0
Scrappinak THA 1993 28 7 1 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1869 19 7 1 0 0
Andromedan SEL 1798 18 3 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1617 8 1 0 0 0