SUPR Tournament Predictions for RAT13Q2
The table below shows my prediction for the RAT13Q2 based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings. The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).
The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings (Appendix D - Time Varying), so they include both TC RPS and player skill.
Results are now shown both for the initial bracket structure, and for subsequent times when various match results are known. The subsequent updates are not carried out on any fixed schedule.
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-- 31 DECEMBER PREDICTION --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
BS KLI 2705 100 100 100 100 66
Agent_of_Change ISC 2240 100 100 100 100 34
The_Rock ZIN 2867 100 0 0 0 0
Old_School GRN 2733 100 0 0 0 0
Bakija SEL 2681 0 0 0 0 0
Moose WAX 2644 100 100 0 0 0
Sir_Hood KLI 2626 0 0 0 0 0
captainron WBS 2507 0 0 0 0 0
Romwe RKR 2491 100 0 0 0 0
Gregg ZIN 2439 0 0 0 0 0
Krieg RKR 2417 100 100 100 0 0
Tartan_Army ZIN 2402 100 100 100 0 0
Tartan_Army1 ZIN 2402 0 0 0 0 0
Laszlo KLI 2396 0 0 0 0 0
CrashAndBurn WAX 2371 100 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ORI 2294 100 0 0 0 0
Duke RKR 2207 0 0 0 0 0
Duke1 RKR 2207 0 0 0 0 0
Devil GRN 2194 100 100 0 0 0
Chest_Rockwell LDR 2164 100 0 0 0 0
Neonpico ORI 2158 0 0 0 0 0
Jando LDR 2134 100 0 0 0 0
GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 2107 100 100 0 0 0
GaiusFrackingBaltar1 GRN 2107 0 0 0 0 0
V_Raptor ISC 2018 100 0 0 0 0
The_Geek ISC 2011 0 0 0 0 0
Midnite_Oil WBS 1869 100 100 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1868 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan SEL 1802 0 0 0 0 0
Klenotic KLI 1680 0 0 0 0 0
Enclave_Envoy THA 1679 0 0 0 0 0
Thrassh GRN 1281 0 0 0 0 0
-----------------------------
-- 30 NOVEMBER PREDICTION --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
BS KLI 2705 100 100 100 62 40
Agent_of_Change ISC 2240 100 100 100 100 40
Krieg RKR 2417 100 100 100 38 19
The_Rock ZIN 2867 100 0 0 0 0
Old_School GRN 2733 100 0 0 0 0
Bakija SEL 2681 0 0 0 0 0
Moose WAX 2644 100 100 0 0 0
Sir_Hood KLI 2626 0 0 0 0 0
captainron WBS 2507 0 0 0 0 0
Romwe RKR 2491 100 0 0 0 0
Gregg ZIN 2439 0 0 0 0 0
Tartan_Army ZIN 2402 100 100 100 0 0
Tartan_Army1 ZIN 2402 0 0 0 0 0
Laszlo KLI 2396 0 0 0 0 0
CrashAndBurn WAX 2371 100 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ORI 2294 100 0 0 0 0
Duke RKR 2207 0 0 0 0 0
Duke1 RKR 2207 0 0 0 0 0
Devil GRN 2194 100 100 0 0 0
Chest_Rockwell LDR 2164 100 0 0 0 0
Neonpico ORI 2158 0 0 0 0 0
Jando LDR 2134 100 0 0 0 0
GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 2107 100 100 0 0 0
GaiusFrackingBaltar1 GRN 2107 0 0 0 0 0
V_Raptor ISC 2018 100 0 0 0 0
The_Geek ISC 2011 0 0 0 0 0
Midnite_Oil WBS 1869 100 100 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1868 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan SEL 1802 0 0 0 0 0
Klenotic KLI 1680 0 0 0 0 0
Enclave_Envoy THA 1679 0 0 0 0 0
Thrassh GRN 1281 0 0 0 0 0
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-- 12 OCTOBER PREDICTION --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
BS KLI 2678 100 100 100 61 41
Tartan_Army ZIN 2398 100 100 100 70 26
Krieg RKR 2409 100 100 100 39 21
Agent_of_Change ISC 2202 100 100 100 30 12
The_Rock ZIN 2860 100 0 0 0 0
Old_School GRN 2731 100 0 0 0 0
Bakija SEL 2679 0 0 0 0 0
Moose WAX 2641 100 100 0 0 0
Sir_Hood KLI 2623 0 0 0 0 0
captainron WBS 2507 0 0 0 0 0
Romwe RKR 2490 100 0 0 0 0
Gregg ZIN 2435 0 0 0 0 0
Tartan_Army1 ZIN 2398 0 0 0 0 0
Laszlo KLI 2390 0 0 0 0 0
CrashAndBurn WAX 2366 100 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ORI 2299 100 0 0 0 0
Duke RKR 2207 0 0 0 0 0
Duke1 RKR 2207 0 0 0 0 0
Devil GRN 2179 100 100 0 0 0
Chest_Rockwell LDR 2163 100 0 0 0 0
Neonpico ORI 2152 0 0 0 0 0
Jando LDR 2134 100 0 0 0 0
GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 2100 100 100 0 0 0
GaiusFrackingBaltar1 GRN 2100 0 0 0 0 0
The_Geek ISC 2011 0 0 0 0 0
V_Raptor ISC 2006 100 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1866 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan SEL 1807 0 0 0 0 0
Midnite_Oil WBS 1780 100 100 0 0 0
Klenotic KLI 1687 0 0 0 0 0
Enclave_Envoy THA 1680 0 0 0 0 0
Thrassh GRN 1285 0 0 0 0 0
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-- 20 SEPTEMBER PREDICTION --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
Tartan_Army ZIN 2476 100 100 87 62 30
BS KLI 2725 100 100 49 31 21
Moose WAX 2668 100 100 51 38 21
Krieg RKR 2385 100 100 100 31 15
Agent_of_Change ISC 2233 100 100 100 35 14
The_Rock ZIN 2927 100 0 0 0 0
Old_School GRN 2750 100 0 0 0 0
Bakija SEL 2730 0 0 0 0 0
Sir_Hood KLI 2653 0 0 0 0 0
captainron WBS 2560 0 0 0 0 0
Romwe RKR 2509 100 0 0 0 0
CrashAndBurn WAX 2505 100 0 0 0 0
Tartan_Army1 ZIN 2476 0 0 0 0 0
Laszlo KLI 2465 0 0 0 0 0
Gregg ZIN 2464 0 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ORI 2401 100 0 0 0 0
Duke RKR 2238 0 0 0 0 0
Duke1 RKR 2238 0 0 0 0 0
Neonpico ORI 2224 0 0 0 0 0
GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 2186 100 100 0 0 0
GaiusFrackingBaltar1 GRN 2186 0 0 0 0 0
Devil GRN 2180 100 100 0 0 0
Chest_Rockwell LDR 2156 100 0 0 0 0
Jando LDR 2147 100 0 0 0 0
The_Geek ISC 2015 0 0 0 0 0
V_Raptor ISC 2004 100 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1842 0 0 0 0 0
Midnite_Oil WBS 1788 100 100 13 3 0
Andromedan SEL 1765 0 0 0 0 0
Enclave_Envoy THA 1689 0 0 0 0 0
Klenotic KLI 1630 0 0 0 0 0
Thrassh GRN 1313 0 0 0 0 0
-------------------------
-- 30 JUNE PREDICTION --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
The_Rock ZIN 2833 100 87 72 53 45
Tartan_Army ZIN 2205 100 100 84 55 15
BS KLI 2572 100 100 48 20 14
Moose WAX 2527 100 100 52 19 11
Agent_of_Change ISC 2104 100 100 100 42 10
Krieg RKR 2272 100 78 22 7 4
Old_School GRN 2663 100 0 0 0 0
Bakija SEL 2597 0 0 0 0 0
Sir_Hood KLI 2583 0 0 0 0 0
Gregg ZIN 2427 0 0 0 0 0
captainron WBS 2426 0 0 0 0 0
Romwe RKR 2420 100 0 0 0 0
Laszlo KLI 2333 0 0 0 0 0
CrashAndBurn WAX 2279 100 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ORI 2258 100 0 0 0 0
Duke RKR 2233 0 0 0 0 0
Duke1 RKR 2233 0 0 0 0 0
Tartan_Army1 ZIN 2205 0 0 0 0 0
Chest_Rockwell LDR 2018 100 0 0 0 0
The_Geek ISC 1975 0 0 0 0 0
GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 1968 100 100 0 0 0
GaiusFrackingBaltar1 GRN 1968 0 0 0 0 0
Devil GRN 1951 100 13 5 1 0
Neonpico ORI 1902 0 0 0 0 0
Jando LDR 1887 100 22 2 0 0
V_Raptor ISC 1869 100 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1808 0 0 0 0 0
Enclave_Envoy THA 1760 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan SEL 1752 0 0 0 0 0
Midnite_Oil WBS 1595 100 100 16 4 0
Klenotic KLI 1495 0 0 0 0 0
Thrassh GRN 1409 0 0 0 0 0
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-- 19 MAY PREDICTION --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
The_Rock ZIN 2833 100 86 72 53 35
Old_School GRN 2663 100 85 71 57 30
Moose WAX 2527 100 100 58 21 11
BS KLI 2572 100 79 38 16 9
Tartan_Army ZIN 2205 100 100 68 21 6
Krieg RKR 2272 100 78 22 8 3
AdmiralDZZI ORI 2258 100 66 27 11 3
Agent_of_Change ISC 2104 100 56 16 6 1
Bakija SEL 2597 0 0 0 0 0
Sir_Hood KLI 2583 0 0 0 0 0
Gregg ZIN 2427 0 0 0 0 0
captainron WBS 2426 0 0 0 0 0
Romwe RKR 2420 100 0 0 0 0
Laszlo KLI 2333 0 0 0 0 0
CrashAndBurn WAX 2279 100 0 0 0 0
Duke RKR 2233 0 0 0 0 0
Duke1 RKR 2233 0 0 0 0 0
Tartan_Army1 ZIN 2205 0 0 0 0 0
Chest_Rockwell LDR 2018 100 44 6 2 0
The_Geek ISC 1975 0 0 0 0 0
GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 1968 100 15 7 3 0
GaiusFrackingBaltar1 GRN 1968 0 0 0 0 0
Devil GRN 1951 100 14 5 1 0
Neonpico ORI 1902 0 0 0 0 0
Jando LDR 1887 100 22 1 0 0
V_Raptor ISC 1869 100 21 4 1 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1808 0 0 0 0 0
Enclave_Envoy THA 1760 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan SEL 1752 0 0 0 0 0
Midnite_Oil WBS 1595 100 34 5 1 0
Klenotic KLI 1495 0 0 0 0 0
Thrassh GRN 1409 0 0 0 0 0
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-- 13 MAY PREDICTION --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
The_Rock ZIN 2833 100 86 71 51 36
Old_School GRN 2663 73 55 45 36 19
BS KLI 2572 100 80 40 17 11
Moose WAX 2527 100 63 36 13 7
Tartan_Army ZIN 2205 100 100 66 25 7
Gregg ZIN 2427 69 26 21 15 6
Romwe RKR 2420 100 37 19 7 4
Krieg RKR 2272 100 79 22 9 4
AdmiralDZZI ORI 2258 100 66 27 11 3
Duke RKR 2233 27 13 8 3 1
Agent_of_Change ISC 2104 100 56 17 6 1
Bakija SEL 2597 0 0 0 0 0
Sir_Hood KLI 2583 0 0 0 0 0
captainron WBS 2426 0 0 0 0 0
Laszlo KLI 2333 0 0 0 0 0
CrashAndBurn WAX 2279 100 0 0 0 0
Duke1 RKR 2233 0 0 0 0 0
Tartan_Army1 ZIN 2205 0 0 0 0 0
Chest_Rockwell LDR 2018 100 44 7 1 0
The_Geek ISC 1975 0 0 0 0 0
GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 1968 31 6 3 1 0
GaiusFrackingBaltar1 GRN 1968 0 0 0 0 0
Devil GRN 1951 100 14 5 1 0
Neonpico ORI 1902 0 0 0 0 0
Jando LDR 1887 43 10 1 0 0
V_Raptor ISC 1869 100 20 5 1 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1808 0 0 0 0 0
Enclave_Envoy THA 1760 57 11 1 0 0
Andromedan SEL 1752 0 0 0 0 0
Midnite_Oil WBS 1595 100 34 6 1 0
Klenotic KLI 1495 0 0 0 0 0
Thrassh GRN 1409 0 0 0 0 0
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-- 4 MAY PREDICTION --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
The_Rock ZIN 2833 100 84 69 52 36
Old_School GRN 2663 80 44 34 26 14
Vendetta WBS 2678 64 40 32 25 13
Moose WAX 2527 100 63 39 14 7
BS KLI 2572 56 47 24 10 5
CrashAndBurn WAX 2279 100 75 48 17 5
Gregg ZIN 2427 36 13 9 7 3
captainron WBS 2426 44 35 16 6 3
Romwe RKR 2420 100 37 18 7 3
Krieg RKR 2272 100 79 22 8 3
Laszlo KLI 2333 64 34 11 6 2
AdmiralDZZI ORI 2258 77 51 29 8 2
Tartan_Army ZIN 2205 57 10 5 2 1
Agent_of_Change ISC 2104 100 50 11 5 1
Bakija SEL 2597 0 0 0 0 0
Sir_Hood KLI 2583 0 0 0 0 0
Duke RKR 2233 0 0 0 0 0
Jonbig RFH 2042 20 3 1 0 0
Chest_Rockwell LDR 2018 36 16 1 1 0
CaptainSmartass KLI 2000 78 22 10 2 0
The_Geek ISC 1975 23 17 8 2 0
GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 1968 0 0 0 0 0
Devil GRN 1951 43 6 2 0 0
Neonpico ORI 1902 0 0 0 0 0
Jando LDR 1887 41 9 1 0 0
V_Raptor ISC 1869 44 9 2 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1808 56 8 2 0 0
Enclave_Envoy THA 1760 59 11 1 0 0
Andromedan SEL 1752 0 0 0 0 0
Midnite_Oil WBS 1595 100 32 5 1 0
Klenotic KLI 1495 22 2 0 0 0
Thrassh GRN 1409 0 0 0 0 0
-------------------------
-- ORIGINAL PREDICTION --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
The_Rock ZIN 2833 81 68 58 43 30
Old_School GRN 2663 80 44 29 21 12
Vendetta WBS 2678 62 39 27 20 11
Sir_Hood KLI 2583 69 48 22 15 7
Moose WAX 2527 81 53 32 13 7
BS KLI 2572 56 47 24 11 6
Bakija SEL 2597 40 28 21 9 4
Romwe RKR 2420 93 42 22 10 4
captainron WBS 2426 44 35 16 7 3
CrashAndBurn WAX 2279 60 45 28 11 3
Krieg RKR 2272 76 60 20 7 3
Gregg ZIN 2427 38 14 7 5 2
AdmiralDZZI ORI 2258 77 56 29 8 2
Laszlo KLI 2333 63 26 8 4 1
Duke RKR 2233 19 11 7 3 1
Tartan_Army ZIN 2205 58 13 8 3 1
Agent_of_Change ISC 2104 31 16 4 1 0
Jonbig RFH 2042 20 3 1 0 0
Chest_Rockwell LDR 2018 37 11 1 0 0
CaptainSmartass KLI 2000 77 24 11 2 0
The_Geek ISC 1975 23 16 7 1 0
GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 1968 19 5 1 0 0
Devil GRN 1951 42 7 3 1 0
Neonpico ORI 1902 24 16 2 0 0
Jando LDR 1887 41 10 1 0 0
V_Raptor ISC 1869 44 9 3 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1808 56 9 2 0 0
Enclave_Envoy THA 1760 59 13 1 0 0
Andromedan SEL 1752 56 13 2 0 0
Midnite_Oil WBS 1595 44 14 2 0 0
Klenotic KLI 1495 23 3 1 0 0
Thrassh GRN 1409 7 1 0 0 0