SUPR Tournament Predictions for RAT13Q1
The table below shows my prediction for the RAT13Q1 based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings. The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).
The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings (Appendix D - Time Varying), so they include both TC RPS and player skill.
Results are now shown both for the initial bracket structure, and for subsequent times when various match results are known. The subsequent updates are not carried out on any fixed schedule.
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-- UPDATE 12 OCTOBER 2013 --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
BS KLI 2678 100 100 100 100 100
The_Rock HYD 2860 100 100 100 100 0
Nomad ORI 2774 100 0 0 0 0
Old_School KLI 2731 100 0 0 0 0
Bakija GRN 2679 100 100 100 0 0
Moose KLI 2641 0 0 0 0 0
Vendetta GRN 2613 100 0 0 0 0
captainron WBS 2507 100 100 100 0 0
Romwe LDR 2490 100 100 0 0 0
MetalDog HYD 2474 100 0 0 0 0
Gregg ZIN 2435 100 0 0 0 0
Krieg KLI 2409 0 0 0 0 0
Tartan_Army LYR 2398 100 0 0 0 0
Laszlo HYD 2390 100 100 0 0 0
CrashAndBurn WAX 2366 0 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI KLI 2299 0 0 0 0 0
Duke RKR 2207 0 0 0 0 0
Devil WBS 2179 100 100 0 0 0
Chest_Rockwell ISC 2163 0 0 0 0 0
Neonpico WAX 2152 0 0 0 0 0
Jando ZIN 2134 100 100 0 0 0
GaiusFrackingBaltar KLI 2100 0 0 0 0 0
The_Geek ISC 2011 0 0 0 0 0
V_Raptor KLI 2006 0 0 0 0 0
JonB RKE 1937 0 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1866 100 0 0 0 0
Andromedan WBS 1807 0 0 0 0 0
Enclave_Envoy THN 1680 0 0 0 0 0
ericphillips ZIN 1655 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed GRN 1634 100 0 0 0 0
Thrassh GRN 1285 0 0 0 0 0
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-- UPDATE 19 MAY 2013 --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
The_Rock HYD 2833 100 100 100 100 65
BS KLI 2572 100 100 100 100 35
Vendetta GRN 2678 100 0 0 0 0
Nomad ORI 2664 100 0 0 0 0
Old_School KLI 2663 100 0 0 0 0
Bakija GRN 2597 100 100 100 0 0
Moose KLI 2527 0 0 0 0 0
Gregg ZIN 2427 100 0 0 0 0
captainron WBS 2426 100 100 100 0 0
Romwe LDR 2420 100 100 0 0 0
MetalDog HYD 2401 100 0 0 0 0
Laszlo HYD 2333 100 100 0 0 0
CrashAndBurn WAX 2279 0 0 0 0 0
Krieg KLI 2272 0 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI KLI 2258 0 0 0 0 0
Duke RKR 2233 0 0 0 0 0
Tartan_Army LYR 2205 100 0 0 0 0
Chest_Rockwell ISC 2018 0 0 0 0 0
The_Geek ISC 1975 0 0 0 0 0
GaiusFrackingBaltar KLI 1968 0 0 0 0 0
Devil WBS 1951 100 100 0 0 0
JonB RKE 1930 0 0 0 0 0
Neonpico WAX 1902 0 0 0 0 0
Jando ZIN 1887 100 100 0 0 0
V_Raptor KLI 1869 0 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1808 100 0 0 0 0
Enclave_Envoy THN 1760 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan WBS 1752 0 0 0 0 0
ericphillips ZIN 1665 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed GRN 1504 100 0 0 0 0
Thrassh GRN 1409 0 0 0 0 0
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-- UPDATE 13 MAY 2013 --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
The_Rock HYD 2833 100 100 100 100 68
BS KLI 2572 100 100 100 55 20
captainron WBS 2426 100 100 100 45 12
Vendetta GRN 2678 100 0 0 0 0
Nomad ORI 2664 100 0 0 0 0
Old_School KLI 2663 100 0 0 0 0
Bakija GRN 2597 100 100 100 0 0
Moose KLI 2527 0 0 0 0 0
Gregg ZIN 2427 100 0 0 0 0
Romwe LDR 2420 100 100 0 0 0
MetalDog HYD 2401 100 0 0 0 0
Laszlo HYD 2333 100 100 0 0 0
CrashAndBurn WAX 2279 0 0 0 0 0
Krieg KLI 2272 0 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI KLI 2258 0 0 0 0 0
Duke RKR 2233 0 0 0 0 0
Tartan_Army LYR 2205 100 0 0 0 0
Chest_Rockwell ISC 2018 0 0 0 0 0
The_Geek ISC 1975 0 0 0 0 0
GaiusFrackingBaltar KLI 1968 0 0 0 0 0
Devil WBS 1951 100 100 0 0 0
JonB RKE 1930 0 0 0 0 0
Neonpico WAX 1902 0 0 0 0 0
Jando ZIN 1887 100 100 0 0 0
V_Raptor KLI 1869 0 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1808 100 0 0 0 0
Enclave_Envoy THN 1760 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan WBS 1752 0 0 0 0 0
ericphillips ZIN 1665 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed GRN 1504 100 0 0 0 0
Thrassh GRN 1409 0 0 0 0 0
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-- UPDATE 4 MAY 2013 --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
The_Rock HYD 2833 100 100 100 56 38
Bakija GRN 2597 100 100 100 44 24
BS KLI 2572 100 100 100 56 22
captainron WBS 2426 100 100 100 44 16
Vendetta GRN 2678 100 0 0 0 0
Nomad ORI 2664 100 0 0 0 0
Old_School KLI 2663 100 0 0 0 0
Moose KLI 2527 0 0 0 0 0
Gregg ZIN 2427 100 0 0 0 0
Romwe LDR 2420 100 100 0 0 0
MetalDog HYD 2401 100 0 0 0 0
Laszlo HYD 2333 100 100 0 0 0
CrashAndBurn WAX 2279 0 0 0 0 0
Krieg KLI 2272 0 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI KLI 2258 0 0 0 0 0
Duke RKR 2233 0 0 0 0 0
Tartan_Army LYR 2205 100 0 0 0 0
Chest_Rockwell ISC 2018 0 0 0 0 0
The_Geek ISC 1975 0 0 0 0 0
GaiusFrackingBaltar KLI 1968 0 0 0 0 0
Devil WBS 1951 100 100 0 0 0
JonB RKE 1930 0 0 0 0 0
Neonpico WAX 1902 0 0 0 0 0
Jando ZIN 1887 100 100 0 0 0
V_Raptor KLI 1869 0 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1808 100 0 0 0 0
Enclave_Envoy THN 1760 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan WBS 1752 0 0 0 0 0
ericphillips ZIN 1665 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed GRN 1504 100 0 0 0 0
Thrassh GRN 1409 0 0 0 0 0
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-- UPDATE 28 APRIL 2013 --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
The_Rock HYD 2833 100 100 90 51 35
Bakija GRN 2597 100 100 100 47 26
BS KLI 2572 100 100 85 47 20
captainron WBS 2426 100 100 100 50 18
Vendetta GRN 2678 100 0 0 0 0
Nomad ORI 2664 100 0 0 0 0
Old_School KLI 2663 100 0 0 0 0
Moose KLI 2527 0 0 0 0 0
Gregg ZIN 2427 100 0 0 0 0
Romwe LDR 2420 100 100 0 0 0
MetalDog HYD 2401 100 0 0 0 0
Laszlo HYD 2333 100 100 0 0 0
CrashAndBurn WAX 2279 0 0 0 0 0
Krieg KLI 2272 0 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI KLI 2258 0 0 0 0 0
Duke RKR 2233 0 0 0 0 0
Tartan_Army LYR 2205 100 0 0 0 0
Chest_Rockwell ISC 2018 0 0 0 0 0
The_Geek ISC 1975 0 0 0 0 0
GaiusFrackingBaltar KLI 1968 0 0 0 0 0
Devil WBS 1951 100 100 10 2 0
JonB RKE 1930 0 0 0 0 0
Neonpico WAX 1902 0 0 0 0 0
Jando ZIN 1887 100 100 15 3 0
V_Raptor KLI 1869 0 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1808 100 0 0 0 0
Enclave_Envoy THN 1760 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan WBS 1752 0 0 0 0 0
ericphillips ZIN 1665 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed GRN 1504 100 0 0 0 0
Thrassh GRN 1409 0 0 0 0 0
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-- UPDATE 13 APRIL 2013 --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
Bakija GRN 2597 100 100 100 55 31
The_Rock HYD 2833 100 74 67 37 26
BS KLI 2572 100 100 86 48 22
captainron WBS 2426 100 100 100 49 19
MetalDog HYD 2401 100 26 19 5 2
Devil WBS 1951 100 100 14 3 1
Vendetta GRN 2678 100 0 0 0 0
Nomad ORI 2664 100 0 0 0 0
Old_School KLI 2663 100 0 0 0 0
Moose KLI 2527 0 0 0 0 0
Gregg ZIN 2427 100 0 0 0 0
Romwe LDR 2420 100 100 0 0 0
Laszlo HYD 2333 100 100 0 0 0
CrashAndBurn WAX 2279 0 0 0 0 0
Krieg KLI 2272 0 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI KLI 2258 0 0 0 0 0
Duke RKR 2233 0 0 0 0 0
Tartan_Army LYR 2205 100 0 0 0 0
Chest_Rockwell ISC 2018 0 0 0 0 0
The_Geek ISC 1975 0 0 0 0 0
GaiusFrackingBaltar KLI 1968 0 0 0 0 0
JonB RKE 1930 0 0 0 0 0
Neonpico WAX 1902 0 0 0 0 0
Jando ZIN 1887 100 100 14 3 0
V_Raptor KLI 1869 0 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1808 100 0 0 0 0
Enclave_Envoy THN 1760 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan WBS 1752 0 0 0 0 0
ericphillips ZIN 1665 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed GRN 1504 100 0 0 0 0
Thrassh GRN 1409 0 0 0 0 0
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-- UPDATE 1 APRIL 2013 --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
Bakija GRN 2592 100 100 100 54 30
The_Rock HYD 2829 100 75 67 38 27
BS KLI 2569 100 100 50 30 13
captainron WBS 2424 100 100 57 30 11
Nomad ORI 2662 100 81 47 22 10
Laszlo HYD 2317 100 100 43 18 5
MetalDog HYD 2395 100 25 19 6 3
Devil WBS 1949 100 100 14 2 1
Vendetta GRN 2680 100 0 0 0 0
Old_School KLI 2662 100 0 0 0 0
Moose KLI 2525 0 0 0 0 0
Gregg ZIN 2425 100 0 0 0 0
Romwe LDR 2421 100 100 0 0 0
CrashAndBurn WAX 2273 0 0 0 0 0
Krieg KLI 2271 0 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI KLI 2248 0 0 0 0 0
Duke RKR 2236 0 0 0 0 0
Tartan_Army LYR 2204 100 0 0 0 0
Chest_Rockwell ISC 2015 0 0 0 0 0
The_Geek ISC 1979 0 0 0 0 0
GaiusFrackingBaltar KLI 1939 0 0 0 0 0
JonB RKE 1932 0 0 0 0 0
Jando ZIN 1885 100 19 3 1 0
Neonpico WAX 1875 0 0 0 0 0
V_Raptor KLI 1856 0 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1810 100 0 0 0 0
Enclave_Envoy THN 1770 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan WBS 1756 0 0 0 0 0
ericphillips ZIN 1668 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed GRN 1507 100 0 0 0 0
Thrassh GRN 1417 0 0 0 0 0
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-- UPDATE 29 MARCH 2013 --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
The_Rock HYD 2829 100 75 67 43 31
Bakija GRN 2592 100 100 75 41 23
BS KLI 2569 100 100 49 30 13
captainron WBS 2424 100 100 58 32 13
Nomad ORI 2662 100 80 48 21 9
Laszlo HYD 2317 100 100 42 17 5
MetalDog HYD 2395 100 25 18 8 4
Romwe LDR 2421 100 100 26 5 2
Devil WBS 1949 100 100 15 4 1
Vendetta GRN 2680 100 0 0 0 0
Old_School KLI 2662 100 0 0 0 0
Moose KLI 2525 0 0 0 0 0
Gregg ZIN 2425 100 0 0 0 0
CrashAndBurn WAX 2273 0 0 0 0 0
Krieg KLI 2271 0 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI KLI 2248 0 0 0 0 0
Duke RKR 2236 0 0 0 0 0
Tartan_Army LYR 2204 100 0 0 0 0
Chest_Rockwell ISC 2015 0 0 0 0 0
The_Geek ISC 1979 0 0 0 0 0
GaiusFrackingBaltar KLI 1939 0 0 0 0 0
JonB RKE 1932 0 0 0 0 0
Jando ZIN 1885 100 20 3 1 0
Neonpico WAX 1875 0 0 0 0 0
V_Raptor KLI 1856 0 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1810 100 0 0 0 0
Enclave_Envoy THN 1770 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan WBS 1756 0 0 0 0 0
ericphillips ZIN 1668 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed GRN 1507 100 0 0 0 0
Thrassh GRN 1417 0 0 0 0 0
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-- UPDATE 20 MARCH 2013 --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
The_Rock HYD 2829 100 75 67 46 30
Bakija GRN 2592 100 83 62 34 17
Vendetta GRN 2680 100 78 49 27 15
BS KLI 2569 100 100 48 24 11
Nomad ORI 2662 100 81 49 23 10
captainron WBS 2424 100 100 42 22 9
MetalDog HYD 2395 100 25 19 9 4
Romwe LDR 2421 100 100 31 5 2
Laszlo HYD 2317 100 22 9 4 1
Devil WBS 1949 100 100 14 4 1
Old_School KLI 2662 100 0 0 0 0
Moose KLI 2525 0 0 0 0 0
Gregg ZIN 2425 100 0 0 0 0
CrashAndBurn WAX 2273 0 0 0 0 0
Krieg KLI 2271 0 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI KLI 2248 0 0 0 0 0
Duke RKR 2236 0 0 0 0 0
Tartan_Army LYR 2204 100 17 7 2 0
Chest_Rockwell ISC 2015 0 0 0 0 0
The_Geek ISC 1979 0 0 0 0 0
GaiusFrackingBaltar KLI 1939 0 0 0 0 0
JonB RKE 1932 0 0 0 0 0
Jando ZIN 1885 100 19 3 0 0
Neonpico WAX 1875 0 0 0 0 0
V_Raptor KLI 1856 0 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1810 100 0 0 0 0
Enclave_Envoy THN 1770 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan WBS 1756 0 0 0 0 0
ericphillips ZIN 1668 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed GRN 1507 100 0 0 0 0
Thrassh GRN 1417 0 0 0 0 0
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-- ORIGINAL PREDICTION --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
The_Rock HYD 2829 97 76 51 36 24
Vendetta GRN 2680 86 69 48 28 16
Old_School KLI 2662 92 72 34 21 12
Bakija GRN 2592 79 65 47 23 12
BS KLI 2569 68 64 32 17 8
Nomad ORI 2662 62 48 32 17 7
captainron WBS 2424 69 57 26 14 5
Gregg ZIN 2425 76 57 27 9 4
Moose KLI 2525 38 27 15 8 3
MetalDog HYD 2395 75 20 9 4 2
Laszlo HYD 2317 80 25 13 6 2
Romwe LDR 2421 70 30 12 3 1
CrashAndBurn WAX 2273 59 18 9 3 1
Krieg KLI 2271 32 28 10 3 1
AdmiralDZZI KLI 2248 65 20 5 2 1
Duke RKR 2236 31 24 8 3 1
Tartan_Army LYR 2204 100 24 9 2 0
Chest_Rockwell ISC 2015 25 3 1 0 0
The_Geek ISC 1979 21 11 3 1 0
Devil WBS 1949 35 7 1 0 0
GaiusFrackingBaltar KLI 1939 24 6 2 0 0
JonB RKE 1932 14 3 1 0 0
Jando ZIN 1885 41 7 2 0 0
Neonpico WAX 1875 30 7 2 0 0
V_Raptor KLI 1856 54 10 2 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1810 46 10 1 0 0
Enclave_Envoy THN 1770 3 0 0 0 0
Andromedan WBS 1756 20 3 1 0 0
ericphillips ZIN 1668 8 2 0 0 0
MaxSpeed GRN 1507 56 5 0 0 0
Thrassh GRN 1417 44 3 0 0 0