SUPR Tournament Predictions for RAT12Q3
The table below shows my prediction for the RAT12Q3 based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings. The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).
The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings, so they include both TC RPS and player skill. The results are based on the starting bracket structure of the tournament. That is, all the player pairings, who got the BYES, etc. are exactly as per what the judge posted for Round 1. No modifications have been made for the true results of any of the matches, for players dropping out, reentering, and so on. The table below is based on everyone listed for Round 1 playing until they lose, paired up as per the Round 1 bracket structure.
* Simulation run 9 February 2013 using SUPR data through Sept 2012. Hence there is some (modest) error introduced, because the ratings used are influenced by some of the tournament's match results.
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
Old_School ZIN 3010 85 60 38 31 21
Vendetta WBS 2963 84 64 46 29 18
Moose WAX 2869 90 77 61 36 17
Bakija GRN 2856 74 38 22 15 8
Lord_Goofy ISC 2756 80 51 41 15 8
Nomad THA 2978 97 54 21 13 6
Romwe HYD 2706 87 35 15 10 4
Spartan RKR 2658 89 62 24 10 4
captainron WBS 2626 85 50 21 9 4
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons FED 2665 81 39 25 8 2
Droid ZIN 2478 91 46 16 7 2
Laszlo KLI 2601 51 16 9 3 1
Tartan_Army ZIN 2229 64 48 18 3 1
Sir_Hood LYR 2672 26 8 2 1 0
Denagoth LDR 2482 86 17 7 2 0
Krieg RKR 2459 16 7 3 1 0
AdmiralDZZI RFH 2435 15 4 1 0 0
Agent_of_Change ISC 2421 49 13 5 2 0
CrashAndBurn WAX 2269 36 28 8 2 0
JonB RKE 2188 70 29 5 1 0
Devil WBS 2087 10 6 2 0 0
Dderidex RFH 2046 54 16 3 0 0
Jando ZIN 2027 20 6 3 0 0
Chest_Rockwell ISC 2000 13 1 0 0 0
Andromedan SEL 1972 15 4 0 0 0
V_Raptor GRN 1943 20 4 2 0 0
GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 1883 11 5 1 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1806 30 4 1 0 0
Neonpico WAX 1781 46 8 1 0 0
Jungletoy LYR 1707 9 1 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1534 3 0 0 0 0
Klenotic FED 1471 14 0 0 0 0