SUPR Tournament Predictions for RAT12Q1

The table below shows my prediction for the RAT12Q1 based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings. The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).

The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings, so they include both TC RPS and player skill. The results are based on the starting bracket structure of the tournament. That is, all the player pairings, who got the BYES, etc. are exactly as per what the judge posted for Round 1. No modifications have been made for the true results of any of the matches, for players dropping out, reentering, and so on. The table below is based on everyone listed for Round 1 playing until they lose, paired up as per the Round 1 bracket structure. line.

                                     AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
                 CALLSIGN SHIP RATE  R1    R2   R3   R4   SF   Final   
                 The_Rock  WBS 3246   83   75   65   52   46   34
               Old_School  KLI 3006  100   96   84   63   38   21
                 Vendetta  WBS 2841  100   97   76   44   23   11
                       BS  KLI 2884  100   71   66   35   19    9
                    Romwe  HYD 2709  100   88   54   18   12    5
                    Gregg  ISC 2758   76   64   34   13    7    3
               captainron  WBS 2649  100   61   58   22    9    3
                 Sir_Hood  GRN 2646  100   76   20   10    7    3
                    Krieg  ZIN 2501   95   74   66   36   10    3
                    Moose  THA 2877   54   50   39   25    8    2
                 MetalDog  HYD 2551   46   42   29   19    5    2
               Lord_Goofy  RFH 2757   95   61   19    9    3    1
    Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons  GRN 2675   17   12    7    4    2    1
                   Laszlo  HYD 2599  100   29   25   10    4    1
              AdmiralDZZI  ZIN 2541   71   33   30    9    3    1
                     Duke  LYR 2484   88   49   17    9    1    0
                 Denagoth  THA 2482  100   39    5    1    0    0
                    Droid  WAX 2464   24   19    6    1    1    0
                   Jonbig  THA 2338  100   48   12    5    1    0
                     JonB  RKE 2302  100   18    3    0    0    0
                    DaveC  HYD 2301  100   60   10    4    1    0
             CrashAndBurn  WAX 2248  100   12    4    1    0    0
                  ShyHawk  KLI 2237  100   24    3    1    0    0
              Tartan_Army  GRN 2169   62   30    4    1    0    0
               BaldnForty  HYD 2144   29    6    5    1    0    0
                    Devil  FED 2117   52   40    5    0    0    0
               Andromedan  SEL 1970   32    1    0    0    0    0
                 Neonpico  HYD 1961  148   59   19    4    0    0 (Reentered Round 1)
              Sky_Captain  ZIN 1947  100   12    3    0    0    0
              MadOverload  ISC 1914   38    9    1    0    0    0
                Battlecat  ISC 1854  100   68   14    2    0    0
      GaiusFrackingBaltar  WAX 1788   68    4    1    0    0    0
                Jungletoy  LYR 1758   65    2    0    0    0    0
            EastCoastFolk  FED 1664   61   22    3    0    0    0 (Reentered Round 1)
                 tsykoduk  KLI 1557  100   46    3    0    0    0
         ScottishEngineer  ZIN 1547   12    3    0    0    0    0
                 MaxSpeed  RKR 1539  100   54    3    0    0    0
                     Ogar  KLI 1534  100    8    2    0    0    0
           Chaotic_Cobalt  GRN 1471  100   26    1    0    0    0
                 Klenotic  ZIN 1450    5    1    0    0    0    0
                    Saaur  GRN 1417   44   11    1    0    0    0
                  Thrassh  GRN 1297   35    1    0    0    0    0