SUPR Tournament Predictions for RAT12Q1
The table below shows my prediction for the RAT12Q1 based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings. The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).
The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings, so they include both TC RPS and player skill. The results are based on the starting bracket structure of the tournament. That is, all the player pairings, who got the BYES, etc. are exactly as per what the judge posted for Round 1. No modifications have been made for the true results of any of the matches, for players dropping out, reentering, and so on. The table below is based on everyone listed for Round 1 playing until they lose, paired up as per the Round 1 bracket structure. line.
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 R4 SF Final The_Rock WBS 3246 83 75 65 52 46 34 Old_School KLI 3006 100 96 84 63 38 21 Vendetta WBS 2841 100 97 76 44 23 11 BS KLI 2884 100 71 66 35 19 9 Romwe HYD 2709 100 88 54 18 12 5 Gregg ISC 2758 76 64 34 13 7 3 captainron WBS 2649 100 61 58 22 9 3 Sir_Hood GRN 2646 100 76 20 10 7 3 Krieg ZIN 2501 95 74 66 36 10 3 Moose THA 2877 54 50 39 25 8 2 MetalDog HYD 2551 46 42 29 19 5 2 Lord_Goofy RFH 2757 95 61 19 9 3 1 Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons GRN 2675 17 12 7 4 2 1 Laszlo HYD 2599 100 29 25 10 4 1 AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2541 71 33 30 9 3 1 Duke LYR 2484 88 49 17 9 1 0 Denagoth THA 2482 100 39 5 1 0 0 Droid WAX 2464 24 19 6 1 1 0 Jonbig THA 2338 100 48 12 5 1 0 JonB RKE 2302 100 18 3 0 0 0 DaveC HYD 2301 100 60 10 4 1 0 CrashAndBurn WAX 2248 100 12 4 1 0 0 ShyHawk KLI 2237 100 24 3 1 0 0 Tartan_Army GRN 2169 62 30 4 1 0 0 BaldnForty HYD 2144 29 6 5 1 0 0 Devil FED 2117 52 40 5 0 0 0 Andromedan SEL 1970 32 1 0 0 0 0 Neonpico HYD 1961 148 59 19 4 0 0 (Reentered Round 1) Sky_Captain ZIN 1947 100 12 3 0 0 0 MadOverload ISC 1914 38 9 1 0 0 0 Battlecat ISC 1854 100 68 14 2 0 0 GaiusFrackingBaltar WAX 1788 68 4 1 0 0 0 Jungletoy LYR 1758 65 2 0 0 0 0 EastCoastFolk FED 1664 61 22 3 0 0 0 (Reentered Round 1) tsykoduk KLI 1557 100 46 3 0 0 0 ScottishEngineer ZIN 1547 12 3 0 0 0 0 MaxSpeed RKR 1539 100 54 3 0 0 0 Ogar KLI 1534 100 8 2 0 0 0 Chaotic_Cobalt GRN 1471 100 26 1 0 0 0 Klenotic ZIN 1450 5 1 0 0 0 0 Saaur GRN 1417 44 11 1 0 0 0 Thrassh GRN 1297 35 1 0 0 0 0