SUPR Tournament Predictions for RAT11Q2

The table below shows my prediction for the RAT11Q2 based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings. The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).

The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings, so they include both TC RPS and player skill. The results are based on the starting bracket structure of the tournament. That is, all the player pairings, who got the BYES, etc. are exactly as per what the judge posted for Round 1. No modifications have been made for the true results of any of the matches, for players dropping out, reentering, and so on. The table below is based on everyone listed for Round 1 playing until they lose, paired up as per the Round 1 bracket structure. line.

                                     AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
                 CALLSIGN SHIP RATE  R1    R2   R3   R4   SF   Final   
                 The_Rock  THA 3231  100   96   94   83   47   28
                    Moose  KLI 2867  100   90   81   52   36   20
               Old_School  FED 2995  100   64   39   25   15    9
                    Gregg  WBS 2749  100   59   35   19   13    8
               Lord_Goofy  KLI 2747  100   83   43   28   14    7
                   Laszlo  KLI 2601  100   86   49   34   14    6
                    Romwe  FED 2707  100   93   48   34   13    5
               captainron  WBS 2623   58   55   42   21   11    5
                   Bakija  THN 2874  100   54   27   12    6    2
              Angry_Birds  GRN 2497  100   76   53   24    9    2
                 MetalDog  KLI 2532   42   39   27   10    4    1
                BanTheFed  WAX 2524  100   41   22    9    4    1
                Sir_Akira  THN 2522  100   89   62   10    3    1
              AdmiralDZZI  ZIN 2491  100   36   16    9    3    1
            Up_All_Knight  LYR 2605   46   22    7    3    1    0
                    Krieg  GRN 2490   54   24    8    3    1    0
                 Denagoth  RKE 2433  100   95   37    5    1    0
                   Jonbig  THA 2342  100   84   38    6    1    0
                  ShyHawk  KLI 2238  100   52   16    4    1    0
             CrashAndBurn  FED 2227  100   40    6    1    0    0
                    Devil  WBS 2169  100   48   14    4    1    0
                      Eol  RKE 2099   52    2    2    0    0    0
              Tartan_Army  ORI 2077  100   17    2    0    0    0
               Andromedan  WBS 1977  100   60    9    1    0    0
                     JonB  RKE 1957  100   24    8    1    0    0
              Sky_Captain  ZIN 1945  100   10    5    1    0    0
      GaiusFrackingBaltar  WAX 1735   48    2    1    0    0    0
                  PsyBomb  ISC 1704  100   14    2    0    0    0
            VulcanDropout  GRN 1666  100   58    2    0    0    0
                Jungletoy  LYR 1658  100    7    1    0    0    0
            EastCoastFolk  LDR 1574  100    5    1    0    0    0
                    Saaur  GRN 1543  100   42    1    0    0    0
                 MaxSpeed  RKR 1531   58    4    1    0    0    0
                Spaceball  FED 1484  100   11    1    0    0    0
                 Klenotic  ZIN 1428   42    2    0    0    0    0
         ScottishEngineer  ZIN 1371  100   16    1    0    0    0