SUPR Tournament Predictions for RAT11Q2
The table below shows my prediction for the RAT11Q2 based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings. The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).
The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings, so they include both TC RPS and player skill. The results are based on the starting bracket structure of the tournament. That is, all the player pairings, who got the BYES, etc. are exactly as per what the judge posted for Round 1. No modifications have been made for the true results of any of the matches, for players dropping out, reentering, and so on. The table below is based on everyone listed for Round 1 playing until they lose, paired up as per the Round 1 bracket structure. line.
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 R4 SF Final The_Rock THA 3231 100 96 94 83 47 28 Moose KLI 2867 100 90 81 52 36 20 Old_School FED 2995 100 64 39 25 15 9 Gregg WBS 2749 100 59 35 19 13 8 Lord_Goofy KLI 2747 100 83 43 28 14 7 Laszlo KLI 2601 100 86 49 34 14 6 Romwe FED 2707 100 93 48 34 13 5 captainron WBS 2623 58 55 42 21 11 5 Bakija THN 2874 100 54 27 12 6 2 Angry_Birds GRN 2497 100 76 53 24 9 2 MetalDog KLI 2532 42 39 27 10 4 1 BanTheFed WAX 2524 100 41 22 9 4 1 Sir_Akira THN 2522 100 89 62 10 3 1 AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2491 100 36 16 9 3 1 Up_All_Knight LYR 2605 46 22 7 3 1 0 Krieg GRN 2490 54 24 8 3 1 0 Denagoth RKE 2433 100 95 37 5 1 0 Jonbig THA 2342 100 84 38 6 1 0 ShyHawk KLI 2238 100 52 16 4 1 0 CrashAndBurn FED 2227 100 40 6 1 0 0 Devil WBS 2169 100 48 14 4 1 0 Eol RKE 2099 52 2 2 0 0 0 Tartan_Army ORI 2077 100 17 2 0 0 0 Andromedan WBS 1977 100 60 9 1 0 0 JonB RKE 1957 100 24 8 1 0 0 Sky_Captain ZIN 1945 100 10 5 1 0 0 GaiusFrackingBaltar WAX 1735 48 2 1 0 0 0 PsyBomb ISC 1704 100 14 2 0 0 0 VulcanDropout GRN 1666 100 58 2 0 0 0 Jungletoy LYR 1658 100 7 1 0 0 0 EastCoastFolk LDR 1574 100 5 1 0 0 0 Saaur GRN 1543 100 42 1 0 0 0 MaxSpeed RKR 1531 58 4 1 0 0 0 Spaceball FED 1484 100 11 1 0 0 0 Klenotic ZIN 1428 42 2 0 0 0 0 ScottishEngineer ZIN 1371 100 16 1 0 0 0