SUPR Tournament Predictions for RAT11Q1
The table below shows my prediction for the RAT11Q1 based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings. The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).
The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings, so they include both TC RPS and player skill. The results are based on the starting bracket structure of the tournament. That is, all the player pairings, who got the BYES, etc. are exactly as per what the judge posted for Round 1. No modifications have been made for the true results of any of the matches, for players dropping out, reentering, and so on. The table below is based on everyone listed for Round 1 playing until they lose, paired up as per the Round 1 bracket structure. line.
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 R4 SF Final
The_Rock ORI 3258 100 84 82 60 49 38
Nomad WAX 2894 69 67 64 46 17 10
BS KLI 2888 100 68 59 36 26 10
Bakija GRN 2870 89 75 52 31 22 8
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons ZIN 2676 84 56 46 37 17 7
Moose HYD 2873 62 34 26 13 8 5
Old_School ORI 2997 38 25 20 8 6 4
captainron WBS 2531 100 32 24 12 7 3
Lord_Goofy RFH 2740 100 85 30 7 3 2
Romwe KLI 2729 100 41 23 6 3 2
Sir_Hood KLI 2628 31 29 26 15 4 2
Up_All_Knight GRN 2591 100 65 35 14 3 2
Duke RKR 2529 100 56 26 10 6 2
Bear ORI 2447 100 91 75 31 9 2
Laszlo KLI 2579 100 16 14 5 2 1
BanTheFed HYD 2511 100 45 17 7 4 1
Tugger ORI 2507 100 78 43 18 4 1
Grraven KLI 2405 100 39 24 12 4 1
Hardcore ORI 2379 100 74 26 14 4 1
Droid LYR 2463 100 35 15 4 1 0
Jonbig THA 2295 85 74 4 1 0 0
Krieg RFH 2232 89 21 7 1 0 0
CrashAndBurn WAX 2199 86 65 14 4 1 0
Klenotic FED 2137 100 15 2 0 0 0
Eol RFH 2128 16 5 2 1 0 0
BaldnForty ORI 2094 100 21 3 1 0 0
Devil WAX 2027 100 81 21 4 1 0
Andromedan SEL 1993 11 4 1 0 0 0
Dderidex RKE 1962 100 30 2 0 0 0
Tartan_Army RFH 1874 100 76 7 1 0 0
CptCryBaby FED 1656 14 5 0 0 0 0
JDChaiken HYD 1631 100 26 3 1 0 0
EastCoastFolk GRN 1601 100 9 3 0 0 0
GaiusFrackingBaltar RKR 1541 100 4 2 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1519 15 9 0 0 0 0
Spaceball FED 1518 100 24 1 0 0 0
Krellex GRN 1505 100 17 0 0 0 0
VulcanDropout GRN 1480 100 19 2 0 0 0
Teemo ZIN 1280 11 1 0 0 0 0