SUPR Tournament Predictions for RAT10Q2
The table below shows my prediction for RAT10Q2 based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings. The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).
The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings, so they include both TC RPS and player skill. The results are based on the starting bracket structure of the RAT. That is, all the player pairings, who got the BYES, etc. are exactly as per what the judge posted for Round 1. No modifications have been made for the true results of any of the matches, for players dropping out, reentering, and so on. The table below is based on everyone listed for Round 1 playing until they lose, paired up as per the Round 1 bracket structure.
Two caveats. The AND is overrated because my data for it includes its previous, more powerful incarnations. The JIN is treated as being perfectly balanced vs. all other TCs.
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 R4 SF Final
Nomad ISC 2877 100 92 86 54 37 24
BS KLI 2847 100 96 73 52 23 14
Lord_Goofy ORI 2730 100 92 57 40 24 13
Moose WAX 2837 67 49 45 33 20 10
Bakija GRN 2843 100 90 50 25 15 9
Gregg GRN 2705 81 59 47 23 12 5
Colin RFH 2737 100 78 41 16 9 4
Tugger RKR 2493 100 34 29 17 8 3
Romwe FED 2730 33 17 14 9 5 2
Laszlo KLI 2574 100 54 23 13 6 2
KenBurnside WAX 2554 47 34 20 10 4 2
RacerX ORI 2512 100 46 19 11 5 2
BanTheFed HYD 2504 90 49 14 9 3 2
Bear ISC 2470 54 39 31 14 4 2
Hardcore ORI 2394 100 54 30 11 5 2
captainron WBS 2455 46 34 24 9 3 1
Akira ISC 2408 53 34 18 8 3 1
Grraven KLI 2335 100 32 24 7 3 1
Up_All_Knight THN 2596 70 18 6 2 1 0
Droid LYR 2440 100 32 17 5 2 0
Krieg GRN 2323 100 50 12 5 1 0
DaveC LDR 2304 19 9 4 1 0 0
Jonbig THA 2282 100 63 18 2 1 0
Dderidex RFH 2232 100 27 13 3 1 0
CrashAndBurn WAX 2195 100 79 30 7 1 0
Eol LDR 2118 100 10 2 0 0 0
SWO_Daddy HYD 2014 100 46 14 3 0 0
Brazouck RFH 2000 100 59 6 1 0 0
SAVEDFROMWHAT RKR 2000 100 88 9 2 0 0
Kludge KLI 1986 30 4 1 0 0 0
Andromedan WBS 1982 100 8 5 1 0 0
Devil GRN 1964 100 41 5 1 0 0
IKV_Avenger RKR 1921 100 37 8 1 0 0
Tartan_Army FED 1764 100 8 1 0 0 0
Krellex ORI 1581 100 4 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1525 10 2 0 0 0 0
Ogar ORI 1512 100 21 3 0 0 0
Sweeper KLI 1213 100 12 0 0 0 0