SUPR Tournament Predictions for RAT10Q1
The table below shows my prediction for RAT10Q1 based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings. The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).
The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings, so they include both TC RPS and player skill. The results are based on the starting bracket structure of the RAT. That is, all the player pairings, who got the BYES, etc. are exactly as per what the judge posted for Round 1. No modifications have been made for the true results of any of the matches, for players dropping out, reentering, and so on. The table below is based on everyone listed for Round 1 playing until they lose, paired up as per the Round 1 bracket structure.
Two caveats. The AND is overrated because my data for it includes its previous, more powerful incarnations. The JIN is treated as being perfectly balanced vs. all other TCs.
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 R4 SF Final
The_Rock HYD 3235 100 76 67 49 37 29
Nomad WBS 2889 100 96 78 63 50 23
Old_School GRN 2969 100 77 66 44 22 13
BS KLI 2850 100 94 54 21 12 6
Laszlo HYD 2579 100 81 64 48 19 5
Von_Nasty THN 2968 100 68 45 23 7 4
Moose ORI 2843 95 71 61 21 13 4
Bakija ZIN 2849 100 25 19 11 5 3
Romwe WBS 2742 100 61 31 10 5 3
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons ZIN 2675 100 54 26 11 3 2
Eric_The_Silent ZIN 2611 100 23 19 9 3 1
KenBurnside WAX 2548 100 59 8 3 1 1
BanTheFed GRN 2500 100 90 21 8 4 1
Bear GRN 2495 100 46 18 6 1 1
Hardcore ORI 2455 100 93 55 20 4 1
Tugger ORI 2440 100 88 27 14 3 1
Up_All_Knight LYR 2577 100 28 19 5 2 0
RacerX ZIN 2545 68 30 11 2 1 0
Droid THN 2432 100 19 8 4 1 0
captainron WBS 2415 100 41 6 2 1 0
Grraven KLI 2395 100 32 12 3 1 0
Akira ISC 2373 32 9 3 1 0 0
Jonbig RFH 2291 100 43 9 3 0 0
DaveC LDR 2275 100 57 6 1 0 0
Krieg KLI 2215 100 64 16 3 1 0
CrashAndBurn ZIN 2210 100 77 38 13 3 0
BaldnForty LDR 2106 100 23 6 1 0 0
SWO_Daddy RFH 2010 100 36 4 0 0 0
Andromedan RKE 1975 100 6 1 0 0 0
Sumo KLI 1715 100 4 1 0 0 0
Valonqar KLI 1674 5 1 0 0 0 0
Krellex RFH 1625 100 7 1 0 0 0
Spaceball FED 1588 100 12 1 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1503 100 10 0 0 0 0