SUPR Tournament Predictions for RAT09Q4
The table below shows my prediction for RAT09Q4 based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings. The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).
The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings, so they include both TC RPS and player skill. The results are based on the starting bracket structure of the RAT. That is, all the player pairings, who got the BYES, etc. are exactly as per what the judge posted for Round 1. No modifications have been made for the true results of any of the matches, for players dropping out, reentering, and so on. The table below is based on everyone listed for Round 1 playing until they lose, paired up as per the Round 1 bracket structure.
Two caveats. The AND is overrated because my data for it includes its previous, more powerful incarnations. The JIN is treated as being perfectly balanced vs. all other TCs.
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 R4 SF Final
The_Rock THN 3233 100 95 59 44 26 17
Moose WAX 2850 100 90 70 44 29 16
Bakija GRN 2845 100 86 76 41 26 14
BS KLI 2850 100 76 50 36 20 11
Lord_Goofy HYD 2716 100 93 45 28 15 8
Von_Nasty LYR 2940 100 94 40 25 13 7
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons ORI 2657 100 82 57 30 15 6
Duke WBS 2519 100 70 58 37 16 6
Old_School THA 2966 59 53 45 19 8 4
Eric_The_Silent ZIN 2705 72 50 32 11 6 3
Up_All_Knight WBS 2565 100 35 25 8 4 2
KenBurnside WAX 2510 100 86 34 19 7 2
Laszlo WAX 2657 28 15 9 4 2 1
Hardcore ORI 2534 69 44 14 4 1 1
Bear ZIN 2523 41 31 20 7 2 1
captainron WBS 2318 100 92 27 11 5 1
BanTheFed GRN 2476 100 47 19 4 2 0
Droid LYR 2384 100 54 16 3 1 0
Tugger ORI 2328 100 24 5 2 0 0
DaveC LDR 2298 31 9 2 0 0 0
Jonbig RFH 2257 100 16 8 1 0 0
Krieg GRN 2221 100 46 13 3 1 0
CrashAndBurn WAX 2194 100 18 7 3 0 0
Eol LYR 2103 100 37 10 2 0 0
SWO_Daddy ORI 2038 100 53 11 2 0 0
Spaceball FED 2000 100 47 6 1 0 0
Andromedan ZIN 1987 100 30 18 6 1 0
JonB RKE 1987 100 14 2 1 0 0
Kludge WAX 1985 100 63 14 3 0 0
Chairman ORI 1973 100 14 7 1 0 0
Sky_Captain ORI 1860 100 5 1 0 0 0
Akira ISC 1739 100 7 1 0 0 0
Krellex GRN 1720 100 6 0 0 0 0
Kzindog117 ZIN 1649 100 10 3 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1506 100 8 1 0 0 0