SUPR Tournament Predictions for RAT09Q3
The table below shows my prediction for RAT09Q3 based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings. The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).
The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings, so they include both TC RPS and player skill. The results are based on the starting bracket structure of the RAT. That is, all the player pairings, who got the BYES, etc. are exactly as per what the judge posted for Round 1. No modifications have been made for the true results of any of the matches, for players dropping out, reentering, and so on. The table below is based on everyone listed for Round 1 playing until they lose, paired up as per the Round 1 bracket structure.
Two caveats. The AND is overrated because my data for it includes its previous, more powerful incarnations. The JIN is treated as being perfectly balanced vs. all other TCs.
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 R4 SF Final
Old_School JIN 2966 92 87 69 44 29 20
Moose KLI 2850 100 86 83 43 25 15
BS KLI 2850 100 83 62 36 19 12
Fiver ORI 2711 100 93 56 41 26 12
Bakija GRN 2845 70 63 33 28 19 10
Sir_Krotar ORI 2723 100 76 45 22 9 6
Lord_Goofy ISC 2716 83 58 26 16 7 4
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons JIN 2657 100 58 39 22 11 4
Laszlo KLI 2657 100 54 32 19 10 4
Up_All_Knight GRN 2565 100 61 27 15 7 2
Hardcore ORI 2534 100 46 28 14 6 2
KenBurnside JIN 2510 100 78 25 10 4 2
Himosan RKE 2681 100 37 19 8 3 1
Snake_Oiler KLI 2544 30 22 9 6 3 1
Bear KLI 2523 100 42 26 12 5 1
Duke RKR 2519 100 57 21 8 2 1
BanTheFed FED 2476 100 57 23 9 3 1
captainron WBS 2318 84 41 13 6 1 1
DaveC HYD 2298 100 68 37 13 5 1
Squire_Bneus WAX 2406 100 24 8 3 1 0
Droid LYR 2384 17 5 1 0 0 0
Tugger ORI 2328 84 36 13 5 2 0
Jonbig RFH 2257 59 11 3 1 0 0
Krieg GRN 2221 100 64 37 7 2 0
CrashAndBurn WAX 2194 100 43 12 3 1 0
BaldnForty JIN 2101 41 6 2 0 0 0
SWO_Daddy WBS 2038 100 14 9 1 0 0
Jando ZIN 2003 100 32 12 2 1 0
Krypto WBS 2000 100 22 3 1 0 0
Andromedan SEL 1987 66 57 6 1 0 0
Kludge JIN 1985 100 36 14 2 0 0
Chairman ORI 1973 8 5 1 0 0 0
DD32 ISC 1913 100 16 2 1 0 0
Sky_Captain RFH 1860 16 3 0 0 0 0
Dread_Lord KLI 1837 100 8 1 0 0 0
Akira LDR 1739 100 7 1 0 0 0
Masser KLI 1732 16 2 0 0 0 0
Krellex GRN 1720 34 29 2 0 0 0
Sentinal FED 1201 100 14 0 0 0 0