SUPR Tournament Predictions for RAT09Q2
The table below shows my prediction for RAT09Q2 based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings. The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).
The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings, so they include both TC RPS and player skill. The results are based on the starting bracket structure of the RAT. That is, all the player pairings, who got the BYES, etc. are exactly as per what the judge posted for Round 1. No modifications have been made for the true results of any of the matches, for players dropping out, reentering, and so on. The table below is based on everyone listed for Round 1 playing until they lose, paired up as per the Round 1 bracket structure.
One caveat. The AND is overrated because my data for it includes its previous, more powerful incarnations.
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 R4 SF Final
Old_School THA 2967 100 83 62 45 27 14
Nomad FED 2838 100 95 71 46 21 12
Bear WBS 2550 100 75 59 31 18 11
Bakija GRN 2854 68 63 43 29 17 10
Fiver RKR 2724 98 82 47 30 18 9
Romwe RKR 2724 100 62 46 26 13 7
Moose WAX 2842 46 36 23 17 11 6
Himosan RKE 2686 100 66 26 18 10 5
Sir_Krotar ORI 2754 54 37 19 11 6 3
Lord_Goofy WAX 2712 69 37 17 11 6 3
Go_Indy ISC 2554 100 83 35 15 8 3
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons FED 2662 96 52 31 14 5 2
Laszlo HYD 2580 70 34 20 9 4 2
Up_All_Knight FED 2530 71 63 44 20 7 2
KenBurnside HYD 2515 100 45 20 10 5 2
Agent_of_Change KLI 2457 81 72 25 10 4 2
Sir_Hood ORI 2573 30 14 10 4 2 1
Snake_Oiler KLI 2566 31 18 9 5 3 1
BanTheFed FED 2521 100 58 24 8 4 1
Hardcore ORI 2428 32 26 9 4 2 1
Tugger ZIN 2292 79 38 13 4 1 1
Squire_Bneus THN 2413 100 38 16 3 1 0
Droid WAX 2344 58 22 6 3 1 0
Jonbig RFH 2297 100 74 26 4 1 0
DaveC HYD 2278 81 26 8 4 1 0
CrashAndBurn WAX 2184 69 13 4 1 0 0
JonB RKE 2095 19 9 1 0 0 0
captainron THA 2074 100 19 2 0 0 0
The_Geek HYD 2060 42 13 3 1 0 0
Eeyore ZIN 2049 100 68 29 7 2 0
SWO_Daddy KLI 2042 95 18 3 1 0 0
Kludge WAX 2008 66 19 8 1 0 0
Starblade FED 2000 54 9 2 1 0 0
Philip FED 2000 59 18 3 0 0 0
Krieg GRN 2000 29 20 11 1 0 0
Andromedan LYR 1957 100 10 1 0 0 0
Chairman ORI 1949 46 7 1 1 0 0
Droner ZIN 1937 100 25 11 2 0 0
Jaspar KLI 1910 34 13 4 1 0 0
Akira LDR 1887 100 5 1 0 0 0
Sky_Captain RKR 1869 31 4 1 0 0 0
Kahali KLI 1839 21 4 1 0 0 0
Dread_Lord KLI 1749 41 8 1 0 0 0
Maravrin GRN 1575 19 1 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1548 100 17 4 0 0 0
JohnSmith LYR 1371 2 0 0 0 0 0
Kazrak KLI 1296 4 0 0 0 0 0
Sentinal THN 1222 5 0 0 0 0 0