SUPR Tournament Predictions for RAT09Q1
The table below shows my prediction for RAT09Q1 based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings. The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).
The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings, so they include both TC RPS and player skill. The results are based on the starting bracket structure of the RAT. That is, all the player pairings, who got the BYES, etc. are exactly as per what the judge posted for Round 1. No modifications have been made for the true results of any of the matches, for players dropping out, reentering, and so on. The table below is based on everyone listed for Round 1 playing until they lose, paired up as per the Round 1 bracket structure.
One caveat. The AND is overrated because my data for it includes its previous, more powerful incarnations.
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 R4 SF Final
SteveT HYD 3156 76 60 59 51 41 29
Bakija GRN 2854 98 80 47 34 21 11
Moose KLI 2842 100 85 45 31 20 10
BS KLI 2841 100 65 44 33 17 10
Fiver RKR 2724 68 59 39 20 11 5
Romwe ISC 2724 100 43 29 18 10 4
Lord_Goofy ORI 2712 100 61 29 19 7 4
Nomad THA 2838 100 57 37 21 10 3
Gregg LYR 2733 100 59 42 15 7 3
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons FED 2662 100 26 25 13 6 3
Cadet_Stimpy HYD 2575 100 72 34 16 6 3
Laszlo HYD 2580 100 67 43 14 7 2
Sir_Hood ZIN 2573 64 52 26 13 5 2
Old_School THA 2967 46 16 8 6 3 1
Himosan FED 2686 54 19 10 6 2 1
Snake_Oiler RFH 2566 100 56 31 11 4 1
Bear GRN 2550 24 13 12 7 3 1
Up_All_Knight LYR 2530 100 57 28 8 2 1
BanTheFed FED 2521 61 29 15 5 2 1
KenBurnside HYD 2515 32 28 15 7 2 1
Agent_of_Change ISC 2457 69 27 18 7 3 1
Hardcore RKR 2428 51 42 20 6 2 1
Squire_Bneus WAX 2413 59 30 15 4 2 1
Tugger ZIN 2292 100 67 30 7 2 1
Duke LYR 2462 36 26 6 2 0 0
GUNNER WAX 2423 49 44 15 5 2 0
Droid WAX 2344 100 28 9 2 1 0
Jonbig RFH 2297 39 14 5 1 0 0
DaveC HYD 2278 100 44 21 6 2 0
CrashAndBurn WAX 2184 100 19 5 1 0 0
Eol WBS 2098 100 39 9 4 1 0
JonB RKE 2095 100 23 3 1 0 0
Cloudmasters KLI 2083 100 33 9 1 0 0
captainron WBS 2074 100 15 3 1 0 0
The_Geek ISC 2060 41 11 4 1 0 0
Orbis ZIN 1995 31 6 2 0 0 0
Kahali ISC 1839 100 13 2 0 0 0
Dread_Lord KLI 1749 100 14 2 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1548 100 73 3 0 0 0
JohnSmith LYR 1371 2 0 0 0 0 0
Sentinal THA 1222 100 27 0 0 0 0