SUPR Tournament Predictions for RAT08Q4
The table below shows my prediction for RAT08Q4 based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings. The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).
The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings, so they include both TC RPS and player skill. The results are based on the starting bracket structure of the RAT. That is, all the player pairings, who got the BYES, etc. are exactly as per what the judge posted for Round 1. No modifications have been made for the true results of any of the matches, for players dropping out, reentering, and so on. The table below is based on everyone listed for Round 1 playing until they lose, paired up as per the Round 1 bracket structure.
One caveat. The AND is overrated because my data for it includes its previous, more powerful incarnations.
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 R4 SF Final
Sir_Starfurry FED 3263 98 94 71 50 40 28
SteveT THA 3178 67 66 62 44 24 11
Bakija GRN 2864 93 92 65 28 18 10
Moose HYD 2859 100 85 52 30 17 8
BS KLI 2821 83 73 48 35 15 8
Sir_Krotar WBS 2768 94 69 36 21 13 7
DJB1701 WBS 2740 94 63 38 19 11 6
Romwe HYD 2709 92 78 35 16 8 3
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons FED 2675 100 75 61 29 8 3
Himosan ZIN 2671 55 46 30 15 7 3
BigSlowTarget WBS 2542 86 70 25 11 6 3
Lord_Goofy RKR 2699 100 37 23 10 5 2
Bear ZIN 2550 59 53 25 15 4 2
Sir_Hood ZIN 2518 84 56 28 12 5 2
Nomad THN 2816 75 55 22 7 3 1
Laszlo HYD 2580 45 39 22 10 3 1
BanTheFed FED 2523 33 32 22 9 2 1
KenBurnside WAX 2489 100 43 16 6 1 1
Cadet_Stimpy RFH 2573 41 36 16 9 2 0
Sheap THA 2537 100 22 2 1 0 0
Hardcore RKR 2517 25 18 7 2 1 0
Duke LYR 2457 59 11 2 1 0 0
Squire_Bneus WAX 2411 100 31 8 2 1 0
Droid LYR 2339 53 39 8 2 0 0
Tugger ORI 2293 14 9 1 0 0 0
Jonbig RFH 2293 47 29 5 1 0 0
DaveC HYD 2253 17 11 5 2 0 0
Eeyore KLI 2169 81 58 17 5 1 0
CrashAndBurn WAX 2122 87 25 17 4 1 0
JonB RKE 2091 100 15 3 1 0 0
The_Geek ISC 2067 100 19 4 1 0 0
SWO_Daddy KLI 2037 100 27 4 0 0 0
BaldnForty RKE 2022 8 3 0 0 0 0
Kludge ISC 2015 41 4 1 0 0 0
captainron ZIN 1994 100 16 4 1 0 0
Andromedan SEL 1947 16 1 0 0 0 0
Izzboticus HYD 1944 7 6 2 0 0 0
Purple_Drazi GRN 1893 100 5 1 0 0 0
Wildman RFH 1886 6 1 0 0 0 0
Sky_Captain RKR 1864 6 1 0 0 0 0
Midnite_Oil KLI 1782 100 11 1 0 0 0
Dread_Lord RFH 1764 100 36 5 0 0 0
BlackDice RFH 1760 2 1 0 0 0 0
Akira RKR 1750 100 32 3 1 0 0
JohnSmith LDR 1596 13 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed GRN 1560 19 6 1 0 0 0
Asmoridin LDR 1479 100 2 0 0 0 0
Sentinal HYD 1220 100 2 0 0 0 0