SUPR Tournament Predictions for RAT08Q3
The table below shows my prediction for RAT08Q3 based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings. The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).
The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings, so they include both TC RPS and player skill. The results are based on the starting bracket structure of the RAT. That is, all the player pairings, who got the BYES, etc. are exactly as per what the judge posted for Round 1. No modifications have been made for the true results of any of the matches, for players dropping out, reentering, and so on. The table below is based on everyone listed for Round 1 playing until they lose, paired up as per the Round 1 bracket structure.
One caveat. The AND is overrated because my data for it includes its previous, more powerful incarnations.
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 R4 SF Final
Sir_Starfurry RKR 3252 100 91 87 57 48 36
Nomad WBS 2821 100 85 74 36 24 15
Sir_Krotar WBS 2743 100 96 67 40 25 11
Bakija GRN 2834 100 93 62 43 21 8
Moose ISC 2831 77 52 49 30 16 7
BS KLI 2811 100 73 47 38 14 7
Romwe ZIN 2701 100 92 37 27 15 6
Lord_Goofy GRN 2690 79 68 35 27 7 3
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons RKR 2688 100 40 33 13 8 2
BanTheFed ORI 2509 100 90 73 26 9 2
Agent_of_Change ISC 2447 100 53 19 8 2 1
Cadet_Stimpy RFH 2573 100 47 14 5 2 0
Bear FED 2539 100 88 16 3 1 0
Sheap FED 2534 100 27 12 9 1 0
Laszlo WAX 2529 23 9 8 3 1 0
Up_All_Knight FED 2498 100 9 6 1 1 0
Sir_Hood RKR 2441 100 15 9 2 1 0
Droid LYR 2341 100 57 5 1 0 0
Pyrogen LYR 2253 21 11 2 1 0 0
Tugger ZIN 2239 83 51 37 10 2 0
Jonbig RFH 2234 100 44 26 7 1 0
Swamplor KLI 2081 51 39 11 2 0 0
captainron ZIN 2059 100 20 4 2 0 0
SWO_Daddy ORI 2050 100 43 3 0 0 0
Akira RFH 2000 49 24 4 0 0 0
Kludge ISC 1997 100 77 30 6 1 0
Andromedan SEL 1954 100 37 8 1 0 0
Wildman RFH 1889 100 10 4 0 0 0
Sky_Captain LDR 1850 100 4 1 0 0 0
Tartan_Army RFH 1819 17 5 2 0 0 0
JonB RKE 1764 100 7 1 0 0 0
BlackDice WBS 1753 100 93 10 1 0 0
Dread_Lord RKR 1672 100 8 1 0 0 0
Burl GRN 1586 100 23 5 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1576 100 12 0 0 0 0
Sentinal THA 1287 100 7 0 0 0 0