SUPR Tournament Predictions for RAT08Q2
The table below shows my prediction for RAT08Q2 based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings. The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).
The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings, so they include both TC RPS and player skill. The results are based on the starting bracket structure of the RAT. That is, all the player pairings, who got the BYES, etc. are exactly as per what the judge posted for Round 1. No modifications have been made for the true results of any of the matches, for players dropping out, reentering, and so on. The table below is based on everyone listed for Round 1 playing until they lose, paired up as per the Round 1 bracket structure.
One caveat. The AND is overrated because my data for it includes its previous, more powerful incarnations.
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 R4 SF Final
Sandman SEL 3094 100 89 68 50 40 25
Nomad ZIN 2837 77 76 53 43 25 15
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons ZIN 2667 100 90 71 44 21 10
Moose WAX 2837 97 95 46 27 15 9
Bakija GRN 2833 100 65 51 24 16 9
Sir_Krotar ORI 2736 100 98 54 27 14 7
Romwe FED 2701 100 79 33 23 9 4
Sir_Goofy HYD 2699 100 35 27 15 8 4
Duke RKR 2468 100 87 57 28 9 4
Cadet_Stimpy HYD 2566 100 65 20 13 7 3
Laszlo KLI 2516 91 42 31 13 6 2
Sheap GRN 2504 100 61 32 17 7 2
Bear THA 2550 100 55 35 9 3 1
BanTheFed ORI 2495 23 22 10 7 2 1
Up_All_Knight ISC 2489 100 45 36 11 4 1
GUNNER WAX 2383 100 57 38 14 5 1
Jonbig WBS 2233 100 64 18 6 2 1
Caillin LYR 2528 100 35 10 4 2 0
DaveC HYD 2204 100 63 18 6 1 0
CrashAndBurn KLI 2162 100 43 17 3 1 0
Eol WAX 2083 100 57 12 2 0 0
SWO_Daddy WAX 2064 100 45 15 3 1 0
BaldnForty GRN 2054 100 21 4 1 0 0
Kludge WAX 2004 100 10 4 1 0 0
Grishny RFH 1997 100 13 4 1 0 0
Andromedan AND 1957 100 39 8 2 0 0
JonB WAX 1954 100 36 4 0 0 0
captainron ZIN 1939 100 55 16 2 0 0
LittleTinGod KLI 1914 100 11 3 1 0 0
Tartan_Army GRN 1888 100 37 7 1 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1577 9 1 0 0 0 0
Asmoridin FED 1504 100 4 0 0 0 0
Sentinal HYD 1355 3 1 0 0 0 0
Kazrak KLI 1347 100 2 0 0 0 0
Ogar KLI 1318 100 2 0 0 0 0