SUPR Tournament Predictions for RAT08Q1
The table below shows my prediction for RAT08Q1 based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings. The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).
The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings, so they include both TC RPS and player skill. The results are based on the starting bracket structure of the RAT. That is, all the player pairings, who got the BYES, etc. are exactly as per what the judge posted for Round 1. No modifications have been made for the true results of any of the matches, for players dropping out, reentering, and so on. The table below is based on everyone listed for Round 1 playing until they lose, paired up as per the Round 1 bracket structure.
One caveat. The AND is overrated because my data for it includes its previous, more powerful incarnations.
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 R4 SF Final
Bakija GRN 2815 100 91 77 56 35 17
Nomad ORI 2847 100 84 68 38 19 12
BS AND 2817 72 51 41 21 11 8
DJB1701 WBS 2692 100 57 39 21 12 8
SteveT THA 3108 100 43 30 18 11 7
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons ZIN 2667 100 82 45 23 12 7
Sir_Krotar ORI 2749 100 46 32 20 12 6
Sir_Goofy KLI 2694 100 63 33 18 9 5
Laszlo HYD 2538 53 47 35 21 9 4
Up_All_Knight WBS 2475 100 84 31 18 7 4
Moose WAX 2845 28 22 17 9 5 3
Gregg LYR 2711 100 62 28 14 7 3
Cadet_Stimpy HYD 2557 93 87 31 13 7 3
Grraven WBS 2396 95 54 29 16 8 3
Romwe RFH 2703 64 51 18 8 3 2
Bear ISC 2522 47 44 18 9 4 2
Duke RKR 2491 63 47 30 13 6 2
BanTheFed ORI 2469 100 89 44 17 8 2
KenBurnside RFH 2539 55 28 14 6 2 1
Bane HYD 2537 45 15 8 3 2 1
Caillin LYR 2514 100 52 27 9 3 1
Sheap GRN 2505 55 22 11 4 1 1
Doc ZIN 2319 37 31 15 4 2 1
Sir_Hood LDR 2461 100 26 9 3 0 0
Pyrogen THA 2286 36 23 4 1 0 0
ShyHawk KLI 2277 72 46 10 5 2 0
Tugger ZIN 2242 45 20 9 2 1 0
Droid LYR 2221 100 18 3 0 0 0
Jonbig RFH 2216 49 5 2 0 0 0
CrashAndBurn WAX 2183 100 38 11 3 1 0
DaveC HYD 2157 100 48 8 3 1 0
Eol GRN 2082 74 14 2 0 0 0
SWO_Daddy WAX 2064 100 27 4 1 0 0
BaldnForty HYD 2018 51 11 4 1 0 0
JonB LDR 2000 100 10 0 0 0 0
captainron ZIN 2000 100 9 4 1 0 0
Andromedan AND 1969 7 3 0 0 0 0
Sky_Captain RFH 1845 28 6 1 0 0 0
BigJim LYR 1783 26 2 0 0 0 0
BlackDice WBS 1756 100 22 4 1 0 0
Asmoridin KLI 1619 100 9 1 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1584 100 11 1 0 0 0
Ogar KLI 1245 5 0 0 0 0 0