SUPR Tournament Predictions for RAT07Q3
The table below shows my prediction for RAT07Q4 based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings. The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).
The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings, so they include both TC RPS and player skill. The results are based on the starting bracket structure of the RAT. That is, all the player pairings, who got the BYES, etc. are exactly as per what the judge posted for Round 1. No modifications have been made for the true results of any of the matches, for players dropping out, reentering, and so on. The table below is based on everyone listed for Round 1 playing until they lose, paired up as per the Round 1 bracket structure.
Two caveats. The Jindarian (JIN) is treated as balanced against all other TCs, because I have no data on it, and the AND is overrated because my data for it includes its previous, more powerful incarnations.
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 R4 SF Final
SteveT THA 3051 100 79 54 36 28 17
Old_School THA 2922 87 79 55 28 20 11
Nomad KLI 2811 100 86 38 23 14 9
Moose ISC 2791 100 88 56 29 17 9
Bakija GRN 2788 100 73 41 28 13 7
BS AND 2782 100 72 61 34 22 11
Gregg LYR 2685 100 89 58 37 14 5
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons RFH 2670 55 46 31 17 6 2
Krotar ORI 2663 100 70 41 23 12 7
Romwe FED 2650 100 44 25 12 5 3
Cadet_Stimpy HYD 2537 100 88 35 20 11 5
Bane WAX 2525 86 83 30 11 5 2
KenBurnside ISC 2519 65 14 7 3 2 1
Beamer JIN 2492 100 90 40 22 8 3
Sheap GRN 2459 96 91 40 13 4 1
Duke RFH 2447 66 22 7 4 1 0
Up_All_Knight LYR 2431 100 30 9 3 1 0
BanTheFed WAX 2425 35 7 2 1 0 0
Grraven WBS 2368 100 56 34 16 4 2
Cannich ZIN 2362 45 27 18 8 3 1
Laszlo HYD 2315 100 65 27 9 4 1
Doc ZIN 2224 100 72 30 10 3 1
Jonbig KLI 2216 100 28 8 2 0 0
Droid LYR 2157 34 5 1 0 0 0
DaveC WAX 2129 100 12 4 1 0 0
Eol JIN 2068 100 14 2 0 0 0
SWO_Daddy GRN 2055 100 27 13 3 1 0
CrashAndBurn WAX 2054 100 28 8 3 0 0
Kludge WAX 1979 100 16 5 1 0 0
Teal_apostrophe_c FED 1955 13 6 2 0 0 0
Andromedan AND 1948 100 12 1 0 0 0
BaldnForty WBS 1914 100 35 11 2 0 0
BlackDice WBS 1742 14 11 1 0 0 0
MaxSpeed KLI 1581 100 10 1 0 0 0
Ogar WBS 1552 100 11 1 0 0 0
BttleBum LYR 1484 100 5 0 0 0 0
DireWolf THN 1306 4 1 0 0 0 0
Dread_Lord KLI 1299 100 7 0 0 0 0