SUPR Tournament Predictions for RAT07Q3
The table below shows my prediction for RAT07Q3 based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings (30 September 2007). The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).
The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings, so they include both TC RPS and player skill. The results are based on the starting bracket structure of the RAT. That is, all the player pairings, who got the BYES, etc. are exactly as per what the judge posted for Round 1. No modifications have been made for the true results of any of the matches, for players dropping out, reentering, and so on. The table below is based on everyone listed for Round 1 playing until they lose, paired up as per the Round 1 bracket structure.
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 R4 SF Final
Sandman RKE 3060 100 92 61 39 22 15
SteveT THA 3052 100 78 61 46 27 18
Old_School THA 2941 100 78 52 34 20 11
Moose FED 2797 100 83 59 31 18 10
Bakija GRN 2794 100 70 49 29 15 7
BS AND 2793 100 91 68 31 13 7
Fiver THN 2706 100 53 22 8 4 1
Gregg ISC 2685 100 68 31 18 10 4
Sir_Goofy SEL 2671 100 69 41 19 10 5
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons RFH 2657 100 68 34 12 5 2
Solar_Flare RKR 2655 100 73 41 23 12 4
Romwe HYD 2640 100 61 41 22 11 5
Krotar ORI 2616 61 39 21 11 6 2
Hellbent ISC 2540 64 38 12 4 2 1
Cadet_Stimpy HYD 2537 91 56 24 12 5 2
Bane LYR 2522 33 13 3 1 0 0
KenBurnside WAX 2517 100 56 11 4 2 1
BigLizard THA 2492 75 15 6 2 1 0
Beamer RFH 2489 75 19 8 3 1 0
MetalDog KLI 2463 36 17 7 3 1 0
BigSlowTarget LDR 2461 39 16 4 2 1 0
Agent_of_Change ISC 2460 67 31 10 4 1 0
Sheap GRN 2454 94 39 18 6 2 1
Duke RFH 2454 67 23 7 3 1 0
Sir_All_Ones ISC 2432 93 45 13 4 1 1
BanTheFed HYD 2414 79 41 17 6 2 1
Sir_Hood ORI 2396 62 22 10 4 1 0
Cannich ZIN 2369 90 32 13 5 2 1
Grraven KLI 2362 50 24 9 3 1 0
Squire_Bneus WAX 2328 71 8 3 1 0 0
Laszlo HYD 2311 56 32 11 4 1 0
Doc ZIN 2223 66 25 7 2 0 0
Jonbig KLI 2213 38 7 3 1 0 0
Tugger ZIN 2210 63 12 5 1 0 0
Croga GRN 2158 44 13 3 1 0 0
Droid LYR 2155 33 8 1 0 0 0
DaveC HYD 2123 50 11 3 1 0 0
Idiot WBS 2092 37 10 3 1 0 0
Eol THN 2067 85 8 1 0 0 0
SWO_Daddy KLI 2061 50 12 2 0 0 0
CrashAndBurn WAX 2049 50 22 4 1 0 0
Kludge WAX 1977 29 1 0 0 0 0
Andromedan AND 1945 25 8 1 0 0 0
BaldnForty HYD 1907 34 7 1 0 0 0
Sky_Captain ZIN 1808 25 2 1 0 0 0
BlackDice WBS 1742 21 3 0 0 0 0
Rorix RKR 1609 7 1 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed KLI 1582 10 0 0 0 0 0
Ogar KLI 1544 9 1 0 0 0 0
BttleBum LYR 1481 6 0 0 0 0 0
Dread_Lord ZIN 1303 15 0 0 0 0 0