SUPR Tournament Predictions for Platinum Hat 2017
The table below shows my prediction for the Platinum Hat 2017 based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings. The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).
The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings (Appendix D - Time Varying), so they include both TC RPS and player skill.
Results are now shown both for the initial bracket structure, and for subsequent times when various match results are known. The subsequent updates are not carried out on any fixed schedule.
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-- 8 April 2018 UPDATE --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
bakija GRN 2592 100 100 55 40 23
captainron WBS 2582 100 100 60 40 21
Grim GRN 2592 100 86 43 31 18
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons ZIN 2381 100 100 100 29 15
Old_School THA 2598 100 100 60 23 10
CrashandBurn WAX 2326 100 100 40 17 7
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2331 100 100 40 21 6
kingzilla RFH 2717 100 0 0 0 0
captainron1 WBS 2582 100 0 0 0 0
Romwe LDR 2505 100 0 0 0 0
madman ORI 2359 100 100 0 0 0
Nicholander_1765 FED 2310 0 0 0 0 0
Sleepy_cat ZIN 2256 100 0 0 0 0
The_Geek ISC 2233 0 0 0 0 0
Devil GRN 2221 0 0 0 0 0
BigSlowTarget WBS 2036 0 0 0 0 0
DreadPirateRoberts LYR 2000 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan SEL 1892 100 14 2 0 0
Asmoridin WBS 1671 0 0 0 0 0
falrun04 GRN 1666 100 0 0 0 0
Klenotic FED 1665 0 0 0 0 0
Zero_G FED 1636 100 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed HYD 1635 100 0 0 0 0
blackwind WBS 1463 0 0 0 0 0
A88mph WAX 1405 0 0 0 0 0
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-- 31 December 2017 UPDATE --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
bakija GRN 2592 100 78 47 24 16
kingzilla RFH 2717 100 67 37 23 14
Old_School THA 2598 100 82 52 31 13
captainron WBS 2582 100 57 35 19 13
Grim GRN 2592 78 67 38 20 12
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2331 100 77 47 25 8
CrashandBurn WAX 2326 100 69 33 15 6
Romwe LDR 2505 100 53 28 10 4
Tartan_Army ORI 2395 75 39 20 11 4
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons ZIN 2381 100 43 19 6 4
madman ORI 2359 100 33 8 4 2
Devil GRN 2221 86 30 12 6 2
Sleepy_cat ZIN 2256 100 22 9 3 1
Nicholander_1765 FED 2310 0 0 0 0 0
The_Geek ISC 2233 0 0 0 0 0
BigSlowTarget WBS 2036 22 14 3 1 0
DreadPirateRoberts LYR 2000 25 7 2 1 0
Andromedan SEL 1892 100 19 3 0 0
Asmoridin WBS 1671 51 11 2 0 0
falrun04 GRN 1666 100 23 4 1 0
Klenotic FED 1665 0 0 0 0 0
Zero_G FED 1636 14 1 0 0 0
MaxSpeed HYD 1635 49 6 1 0 0
blackwind WBS 1463 0 0 0 0 0
A88mph WAX 1405 0 0 0 0 0
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-- ORIGINAL PREDICTION --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
bakija GRN 2592 100 77 46 23 15
kingzilla RFH 2717 100 67 37 24 14
Old_School THA 2598 100 83 51 31 13
Grim GRN 2592 78 71 40 20 13
captainron WBS 2582 96 55 33 19 13
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2331 92 71 43 23 8
CrashandBurn WAX 2326 100 68 33 15 6
Tartan_Army ORI 2395 75 39 21 12 5
Romwe LDR 2505 100 54 29 12 4
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons ZIN 2381 100 45 20 7 4
Devil GRN 2221 86 31 13 6 2
madman ORI 2359 65 21 6 3 1
Sleepy_cat ZIN 2256 68 15 6 2 1
The_Geek ISC 2233 35 12 4 1 1
Nicholander_1765 FED 2310 32 8 3 1 0
BigSlowTarget WBS 2036 22 15 4 1 0
DreadPirateRoberts LYR 2000 25 7 2 0 0
Andromedan SEL 1892 45 9 1 0 0
Asmoridin WBS 1671 53 11 2 0 0
falrun04 GRN 1666 100 26 4 1 0
Klenotic FED 1665 4 0 0 0 0
Zero_G FED 1636 14 1 0 0 0
MaxSpeed HYD 1635 47 6 1 0 0
blackwind WBS 1463 8 3 1 0 0
A88mph WAX 1405 55 6 0 0 0