SUPR Tournament Predictions for Platinum Hat 2016
The table below shows my prediction for the Platinum Hat 2016 based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings. The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).
The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings (Appendix D - Time Varying), so they include both TC RPS and player skill.
Results are now shown both for the initial bracket structure, and for subsequent times when various match results are known. The subsequent updates are not carried out on any fixed schedule.
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-- 31 December 2017 UPDATE --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
BS KLI 2780 100 100 100 100 100
Old_School THA 2665 100 100 0 0 0
kingzilla KLI 2664 100 0 0 0 0
bakija ZIN 2646 100 100 100 100 0
Moose KLI 2603 100 100 100 0 0
captainron WBS 2587 0 0 0 0 0
Laszlo HYD 2529 100 0 0 0 0
Duke LYR 2491 0 0 0 0 0
DJB1701 WBS 2488 100 0 0 0 0
Romwe FED 2471 100 100 0 0 0
Tartan_Army HYD 2431 100 100 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ORI 2416 0 0 0 0 0
agent_of_change KLI 2408 100 0 0 0 0
Gregg ISC 2359 100 0 0 0 0
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons ISC 2355 100 0 0 0 0
krieg GRN 2324 100 100 0 0 0
CrashandBurn WAX 2288 0 0 0 0 0
Devil FED 2287 100 0 0 0 0
Grraven KLI 2111 0 0 0 0 0
madman KLI 2094 100 100 100 0 0
Ramon HYD 2000 0 0 0 0 0
Sleepy_cat ZIN 2000 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan AND 1826 0 0 0 0 0
A88mph WBS 1735 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1612 100 0 0 0 0
Sebastian WBS 1418 0 0 0 0 0
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-- 15 October 2016 UPDATE --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
bakija ZIN 2646 100 100 64 40 22
BS KLI 2780 100 66 48 33 21
kingzilla KLI 2664 100 69 44 25 14
Moose KLI 2603 100 55 39 20 10
Tartan_Army HYD 2431 100 100 36 18 7
Laszlo HYD 2529 100 34 18 10 5
Old_School THA 2665 100 53 27 10 4
DJB1701 WBS 2488 71 45 17 9 4
Gregg ISC 2359 100 75 33 11 4
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons ISC 2355 100 45 19 8 3
Romwe FED 2471 100 31 17 5 2
krieg GRN 2324 100 45 15 6 2
Devil FED 2287 100 47 15 3 1
captainron WBS 2587 0 0 0 0 0
Duke LYR 2491 0 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ORI 2416 0 0 0 0 0
agent_of_change KLI 2408 100 0 0 0 0
CrashandBurn WAX 2288 0 0 0 0 0
Grraven KLI 2111 29 10 2 1 0
madman KLI 2094 100 25 6 1 0
Ramon HYD 2000 0 0 0 0 0
Sleepy_cat ZIN 2000 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan AND 1826 0 0 0 0 0
A88mph WBS 1735 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1612 100 0 0 0 0
Sebastian WBS 1418 0 0 0 0 0
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-- 9 October 2016 UPDATE --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
bakija ZIN 2646 100 100 68 43 23
BS KLI 2780 100 67 49 34 21
kingzilla KLI 2664 100 70 45 25 14
Moose KLI 2603 100 54 39 19 10
Tartan_Army HYD 2431 100 89 31 15 6
Laszlo HYD 2529 100 33 18 11 5
Gregg ISC 2359 100 75 33 11 5
Old_School THA 2665 100 52 26 9 4
DJB1701 WBS 2488 70 44 16 9 4
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons ISC 2355 100 46 20 8 3
krieg GRN 2324 100 45 14 6 3
Romwe FED 2471 100 30 16 4 2
Devil FED 2287 100 48 15 3 1
captainron WBS 2587 0 0 0 0 0
Duke LYR 2491 0 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ORI 2416 0 0 0 0 0
agent_of_change KLI 2408 100 0 0 0 0
CrashandBurn WAX 2288 0 0 0 0 0
Grraven KLI 2111 30 11 2 1 0
madman KLI 2094 100 25 6 2 0
Ramon HYD 2000 0 0 0 0 0
Sleepy_cat ZIN 2000 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan AND 1826 0 0 0 0 0
A88mph WBS 1735 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1612 100 11 1 0 0
Sebastian WBS 1418 0 0 0 0 0
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-- 18 September 2016 UPDATE --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
BS KLI 2780 100 65 48 33 21
bakija ZIN 2646 100 63 42 26 14
kingzilla KLI 2664 92 64 38 23 13
Moose KLI 2603 100 55 40 20 11
captainron WBS 2587 76 48 27 14 7
Tartan_Army HYD 2431 100 89 37 16 7
DJB1701 WBS 2488 71 46 19 10 5
Old_School THA 2665 100 52 26 9 4
Laszlo HYD 2529 75 26 15 8 4
Gregg ISC 2359 100 46 21 8 4
agent_of_change KLI 2408 100 37 19 8 3
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons ISC 2355 100 45 20 8 3
Romwe FED 2471 100 35 13 4 2
krieg GRN 2324 77 35 11 5 2
AdmiralDZZI ORI 2416 25 9 4 2 1
Devil FED 2287 100 48 15 3 1
Duke LYR 2491 0 0 0 0 0
CrashandBurn WAX 2288 0 0 0 0 0
Grraven KLI 2111 29 12 2 1 0
madman KLI 2094 24 6 2 0 0
Ramon HYD 2000 0 0 0 0 0
Sleepy_cat ZIN 2000 23 7 1 0 0
Andromedan AND 1826 8 1 0 0 0
A88mph WBS 1735 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1612 100 11 1 0 0
Sebastian WBS 1418 0 0 0 0 0
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-- ORIGINAL PREDICTION --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
BS KLI 2780 100 66 49 34 21
bakija ZIN 2646 100 71 50 30 17
kingzilla KLI 2664 92 64 37 22 13
Moose KLI 2603 100 63 46 23 12
captainron WBS 2587 76 48 27 14 7
DJB1701 WBS 2488 69 45 18 10 5
Old_School THA 2665 100 63 29 11 4
Laszlo HYD 2529 75 25 14 8 4
Tartan_Army HYD 2431 55 50 21 9 4
Gregg ISC 2359 100 46 20 8 3
Duke LYR 2491 45 39 13 5 2
Romwe FED 2471 100 35 13 4 2
agent_of_change KLI 2408 55 20 11 4 2
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons ISC 2355 69 31 13 5 2
krieg GRN 2324 77 35 11 5 2
AdmiralDZZI ORI 2416 25 9 4 2 1
CrashandBurn WAX 2288 45 8 4 1 1
Devil FED 2287 60 28 9 2 0
Grraven KLI 2111 31 12 2 1 0
madman KLI 2094 24 6 2 0 0
Ramon HYD 2000 31 6 2 0 0
Sleepy_cat ZIN 2000 23 8 1 0 0
Andromedan AND 1826 8 1 0 0 0
A88mph WBS 1735 40 9 1 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1612 54 6 0 0 0
Sebastian WBS 1418 46 5 0 0 0