SUPR Tournament Predictions for Platinum Hat 2015
The table below shows my prediction for the Platinum Hat 2015 based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings. The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).
The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings (Appendix D - Time Varying), so they include both TC RPS and player skill.
Results are now shown both for the initial bracket structure, and for subsequent times when various match results are known. The subsequent updates are not carried out on any fixed schedule.
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-- 18 September 2016 FINAL --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
The_Rock THA 2947 100 100 100 100 100
kingzilla RFH 2814 100 100 100 100 0
BS KLI 2791 100 100 0 0 0
Old_School HYD 2696 100 100 0 0 0
Moose ZIN 2651 100 100 100 0 0
Grim ISC 2617 100 0 0 0 0
Laszlo HYD 2600 100 100 0 0 0
Duke1 LYR 2595 100 0 0 0 0
Duke LYR 2595 0 0 0 0 0
MetalDog KLI 2592 0 0 0 0 0
Tartan_Army LYR 2532 0 0 0 0 0
captainron WBS 2514 100 0 0 0 0
Lord_Goofy KLI 2498 100 0 0 0 0
Romwe HYD 2486 100 0 0 0 0
agent_of_change WBS 2474 100 0 0 0 0
Sir_GaiusFrackingBaltar WBS 2450 0 0 0 0 0
krieg RKR 2424 0 0 0 0 0
krieg1 RKR 2424 0 0 0 0 0
CrashandBurn WAX 2424 0 0 0 0 0
CrashandBurn1 WAX 2424 0 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2397 100 0 0 0 0
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons FED 2384 100 100 100 0 0
Devil FED 2327 100 100 0 0 0
Grraven WBS 2167 0 0 0 0 0
Vandor RKE 2053 0 0 0 0 0
Viper WBS 2000 0 0 0 0 0
madman KLI 1966 100 0 0 0 0
JonB RKE 1920 0 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer1 ZIN 1913 0 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1913 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan ZIN 1794 0 0 0 0 0
PHDillman RKE 1784 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1565 0 0 0 0 0
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-- 3 January 2016 UPDATE --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
BS KLI 2791 100 100 49 31 20
Moose ZIN 2651 100 68 58 34 17
Old_School HYD 2696 100 67 44 22 13
kingzilla RFH 2814 100 52 26 14 8
Laszlo HYD 2600 100 57 30 17 8
The_Rock THA 2947 76 40 22 13 7
Grim ISC 2617 100 48 25 13 6
agent_of_change WBS 2474 100 51 24 12 5
MetalDog KLI 2592 56 39 19 7 4
Lord_Goofy KLI 2498 100 43 20 10 4
Duke LYR 2595 90 31 23 9 3
Romwe HYD 2486 44 30 13 5 2
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2397 100 33 17 5 2
krieg RKR 2424 24 9 4 2 1
Devil FED 2327 54 34 7 2 1
Tartan_Army LYR 2532 0 0 0 0 0
captainron WBS 2514 100 0 0 0 0
Sir_GaiusFrackingBaltar WBS 2450 0 0 0 0 0
krieg1 RKR 2424 0 0 0 0 0
CrashandBurn WAX 2424 0 0 0 0 0
CrashandBurn1 WAX 2424 0 0 0 0 0
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons FED 2384 100 31 7 2 0
Grraven WBS 2167 0 0 0 0 0
Vandor1 RKE 2053 0 0 0 0 0
Viper WBS 2000 0 0 0 0 0
madman KLI 1966 100 44 8 1 0
JonB RKE 1920 0 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer1 ZIN 1913 0 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1913 46 22 4 1 0
Andromedan ZIN 1794 0 0 0 0 0
PHDillman RKE 1784 10 1 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1565 0 0 0 0 0
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-- 23 December 2015 UPDATE --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
BS KLI 2791 100 100 50 31 20
Moose ZIN 2651 100 68 57 33 17
Old_School HYD 2696 100 67 44 22 13
kingzilla RFH 2814 100 53 26 14 8
Laszlo HYD 2600 100 58 30 17 8
The_Rock THA 2947 77 41 23 14 7
Grim ISC 2617 100 47 24 13 6
MetalDog KLI 2592 56 40 19 8 4
Lord_Goofy KLI 2498 100 42 20 10 4
agent_of_change WBS 2474 100 50 23 11 4
Duke LYR 2595 91 32 23 9 3
Romwe HYD 2486 44 32 14 5 2
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2397 100 33 17 5 2
krieg RKR 2424 23 9 4 2 1
Devil FED 2327 55 35 8 2 1
Tartan_Army LYR 2532 0 0 0 0 0
captainron WBS 2514 100 0 0 0 0
Sir_GaiusFrackingBaltar WBS 2450 0 0 0 0 0
krieg1 RKR 2424 0 0 0 0 0
CrashandBurn WAX 2424 0 0 0 0 0
CrashandBurn1 WAX 2424 0 0 0 0 0
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons FED 2384 84 27 7 2 0
Grraven WBS 2167 0 0 0 0 0
Vandor1 RKE 2053 0 0 0 0 0
Viper WBS 2000 0 0 0 0 0
madman KLI 1966 100 43 8 1 0
JonB RKE 1920 0 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer1 ZIN 1913 0 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1913 45 21 4 1 0
Andromedan ZIN 1794 0 0 0 0 0
PHDillman RKE 1784 9 1 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1565 16 1 0 0 0
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-- ORIGINAL PREDICTION --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
Moose ZIN 2651 87 59 47 27 15
BS KLI 2791 67 45 24 15 10
Old_School HYD 2696 63 47 30 17 10
The_Rock THA 2947 76 43 26 16 9
Grim ISC 2617 84 48 28 15 8
kingzilla RFH 2814 72 41 24 14 7
Laszlo HYD 2600 84 50 25 14 7
MetalDog KLI 2592 55 40 21 9 5
agent_of_change WBS 2474 92 47 23 11 5
CrashandBurn1 WAX 2424 79 55 22 10 4
Duke LYR 2595 91 35 20 8 3
captainron WBS 2514 66 25 12 6 3
Romwe HYD 2486 45 32 15 6 3
Lord_Goofy KLI 2498 52 25 12 6 2
Sir_GaiusFrackingBaltar WBS 2450 37 22 12 5 2
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2397 74 29 15 5 2
Tartan_Army LYR 2532 34 11 4 2 1
krieg RKR 2424 24 9 4 2 1
krieg1 RKR 2424 48 22 8 3 1
CrashandBurn WAX 2424 33 20 7 3 1
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons FED 2384 83 26 7 2 1
Devil FED 2327 54 20 5 1 0
Grraven WBS 2167 28 9 2 1 0
Vandor1 RKE 2053 26 2 1 0 0
Viper WBS 2000 13 5 2 0 0
madman KLI 1966 21 9 2 0 0
JonB RKE 1920 8 1 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer1 ZIN 1913 16 3 1 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1913 46 16 3 1 0
Andromedan ZIN 1794 16 2 0 0 0
PHDillman RKE 1784 9 1 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1565 17 1 0 0 0