SUPR Tournament Predictions for Platinum Hat 2014
The table below shows my prediction for the Platinum Hat 2014 based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings. The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).
The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings (Appendix D - Time Varying), so they include both TC RPS and player skill.
Results are now shown both for the initial bracket structure, and for subsequent times when various match results are known. The subsequent updates are not carried out on any fixed schedule.
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-- 31 MARCH 2015 --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
bakija GRN 2671 0 0 100 100 100
The_Rock THA 2933 100 100 100 100 0
BS KLI 2793 100 100 100 0 0
kingzilla1 HYD 2724 100 100 0 0 0
Sir_Krotar ISC 2724 100 0 0 0 0
kingzilla HYD 2724 0 0 0 0 0
Old_School LYR 2688 100 0 0 0 0
bakija1 GRN 2671 100 100 0 0 0
Tartan_Army HYD 2640 0 0 0 0 0
Sir_Hood RFH 2616 0 0 0 0 0
MetalDog KLI 2607 100 100 0 0 0
Duke RFH 2603 100 0 0 0 0
Laszlo HYD 2581 100 100 100 0 0
captainron1 WBS 2513 0 0 0 0 0
captainron WBS 2513 0 0 0 0 0
Romwe HYD 2483 100 0 0 0 0
krieg KLI 2432 0 0 0 0 0
Gregg RFH 2421 100 0 0 0 0
CrashandBurn WAX 2421 100 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2406 100 0 0 0 0
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons ZIN 2384 100 100 0 0 0
Devil WAX 2341 100 100 0 0 0
Not_Sure1 ZIN 2134 0 0 0 0 0
Not_Sure ZIN 2134 0 0 0 0 0
V_Raptor GRN 2030 100 0 0 0 0
Andromedan SEL 1814 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan1 SEL 1814 0 0 0 0 0
PHDillman1 AND 1801 0 0 0 0 0
PHDillman AND 1801 0 0 0 0 0
Klenotic HYD 1670 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1555 0 0 0 0 0
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-- 31 JANUARY 2014 --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
The_Rock THA 2994 100 100 100 100 41
BS KLI 2820 100 100 100 61 38
MetalDog KLI 2650 100 100 100 39 21
kingzilla HYD 2753 100 100 0 0 0
Sir_Krotar ISC 2744 100 0 0 0 0
Old_School LYR 2742 100 0 0 0 0
bakija GRN 2721 100 100 0 0 0
Tartan_Army HYD 2675 0 0 0 0 0
Sir_Hood RFH 2661 0 0 0 0 0
Duke RFH 2616 100 0 0 0 0
captainron1 WBS 2554 0 0 0 0 0
captainron WBS 2554 0 0 0 0 0
Laszlo HYD 2531 100 100 100 0 0
Romwe HYD 2523 100 0 0 0 0
Gregg RFH 2474 100 0 0 0 0
krieg KLI 2450 0 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2448 100 0 0 0 0
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons ZIN 2435 100 100 0 0 0
CrashandBurn WAX 2408 100 0 0 0 0
Devil WAX 2378 100 100 0 0 0
Not_Sure1 ZIN 2159 0 0 0 0 0
Not_Sure ZIN 2159 0 0 0 0 0
V_Raptor GRN 2086 100 0 0 0 0
Andromedan SEL 1828 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan1 SEL 1828 0 0 0 0 0
PHDillman1 AND 1788 0 0 0 0 0
PHDillman AND 1788 0 0 0 0 0
Klenotic HYD 1619 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1512 0 0 0 0 0
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-- 31 DECEMBER 2014 --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
BS KLI 2820 100 100 100 64 38
The_Rock THA 2994 100 100 100 61 28
bakija GRN 2721 100 100 70 28 14
MetalDog KLI 2650 100 100 61 24 12
Laszlo HYD 2531 100 100 30 11 5
Devil WAX 2378 100 100 39 12 4
kingzilla HYD 2753 100 100 0 0 0
Sir_Krotar ISC 2744 100 0 0 0 0
Old_School LYR 2742 100 0 0 0 0
Tartan_Army HYD 2675 0 0 0 0 0
Sir_Hood RFH 2661 0 0 0 0 0
Duke RFH 2616 100 0 0 0 0
captainron1 WBS 2554 0 0 0 0 0
captainron WBS 2554 0 0 0 0 0
Romwe HYD 2523 100 0 0 0 0
Gregg RFH 2474 100 0 0 0 0
krieg KLI 2450 0 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2448 100 0 0 0 0
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons ZIN 2435 100 100 0 0 0
CrashandBurn WAX 2408 100 0 0 0 0
Not_Sure1 ZIN 2159 0 0 0 0 0
Not_Sure ZIN 2159 0 0 0 0 0
V_Raptor GRN 2086 100 0 0 0 0
Andromedan SEL 1828 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan1 SEL 1828 0 0 0 0 0
PHDillman1 AND 1788 0 0 0 0 0
PHDillman AND 1788 0 0 0 0 0
Klenotic HYD 1619 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1512 0 0 0 0 0
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-- 25 NOVEMBER 2014 --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
The_Rock THA 2992 100 100 68 43 21
BS KLI 2821 100 100 53 34 20
kingzilla HYD 2739 100 100 47 31 16
bakija GRN 2723 100 100 54 26 14
Sir_Krotar ISC 2754 100 64 35 15 9
MetalDog KLI 2655 100 60 35 15 7
Romwe HYD 2523 100 68 36 12 5
Old_School LYR 2750 100 56 19 7 3
Sir_Hood RFH 2678 59 28 8 4 2
Laszlo HYD 2487 100 36 10 4 2
Gregg RFH 2482 100 40 16 4 1
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons ZIN 2412 41 16 5 2 1
Devil WAX 2341 100 32 13 3 1
Tartan_Army HYD 2573 0 0 0 0 0
captainron1 WBS 2553 0 0 0 0 0
captainron WBS 2553 0 0 0 0 0
Duke RFH 2541 100 0 0 0 0
krieg KLI 2447 0 0 0 0 0
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2441 100 0 0 0 0
CrashandBurn WAX 2441 100 0 0 0 0
Not_Sure1 ZIN 2159 0 0 0 0 0
Not_Sure ZIN 2159 0 0 0 0 0
V_Raptor GRN 2074 100 0 0 0 0
Andromedan SEL 1811 0 0 0 0 0
Andromedan1 SEL 1811 0 0 0 0 0
PHDillman1 AND 1776 0 0 0 0 0
PHDillman AND 1776 0 0 0 0 0
Klenotic HYD 1625 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1521 0 0 0 0 0
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-- ORIGINAL PREDICTION --
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AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final
BS KLI 2821 100 71 43 29 17
The_Rock THA 2992 100 64 43 28 15
Sir_Krotar ISC 2754 97 66 40 20 12
kingzilla HYD 2739 61 50 29 19 10
bakija GRN 2723 58 42 23 12 7
MetalDog KLI 2655 77 47 29 14 6
captainron WBS 2553 81 56 25 13 6
captainron WBS 2553 81 56 25 13 6
Romwe HYD 2523 71 55 30 13 5
Old_School LYR 2750 94 51 20 9 4
Tartan_Army HYD 2573 64 25 14 6 3
Sir_Hood RFH 2678 59 30 11 5 2
Duke RFH 2541 85 29 10 5 2
Laszlo HYD 2487 89 33 13 6 2
Gregg RFH 2482 100 45 21 6 2
krieg KLI 2447 50 17 6 2 1
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2441 50 17 8 3 1
CrashandBurn WAX 2441 36 11 5 2 1
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons ZIN 2412 41 18 7 3 1
Devil WAX 2341 70 25 11 3 1
Not_Sure ZIN 2159 51 24 8 2 1
Not_Sure ZIN 2159 51 24 8 2 1
V_Raptor GRN 2074 68 14 2 1 0
Andromedan SEL 1811 44 4 0 0 0
Andromedan SEL 1811 44 4 0 0 0
PHDillman AND 1776 36 6 1 0 0
PHDillman AND 1776 36 6 1 0 0
Klenotic HYD 1625 15 1 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1521 3 0 0 0 0