SUPR Tournament Predictions for Platinum Hat 2013

The table below shows my prediction for the Platinum Hat 2013 based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings. The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).

The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings (Appendix D - Time Varying), so they include both TC RPS and player skill.

Results are now shown both for the initial bracket structure, and for subsequent times when various match results are known. The subsequent updates are not carried out on any fixed schedule.


-----------------------------
--       8 JUNE FINAL      --
-----------------------------

                                      AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
                 CALLSIGN SHIP RATE   R1   R2   R3   SF   Final
                    Moose  WAX 2735  100  100  100  100  100
                       BS  KLI 2791    0    0    0    0    0
               Old_School  ISC 2765  100  100  100    0    0
                   Bakija  GRN 2708  100    0    0    0    0
                     Grim  GRN 2651  100  100  100  100    0
               Sir_Krotar  ORI 2649  100    0    0    0    0
                Sir_Hood1  RKR 2636  100  100    0    0    0
                 Sir_Hood  RKR 2636    0    0    0    0    0
               captainron  WBS 2523  100    0    0    0    0
          Agent_of_Change  ISC 2502  100    0    0    0    0
                    Romwe  HYD 2487  100    0    0    0    0
                    Krieg  KLI 2463  100  100    0    0    0
                    Gregg  RFH 2435  100    0    0    0    0
                  Spartan  RKR 2413    0    0    0    0    0
              Tartan_Army  HYD 2408  100  100    0    0    0
                   Laszlo  HYD 2396    0    0    0    0    0
    Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons  ZIN 2390  100  100    0    0    0
  Sir_GaiusFrackingBaltar  GRN 2324    0    0    0    0    0
              AdmiralDZZI  ZIN 2257    0    0    0    0    0
                    Devil  KLI 2253  100  100  100    0    0
                     Duke  RKR 2223  100    0    0    0    0
                    Jando  GRN 2112  100    0    0    0    0
                 V_Raptor  GRN 2030    0    0    0    0    0
                      vic  GRN 1936    0    0    0    0    0
                  CarlZog  KLI 1930    0    0    0    0    0
                   Krypto  LYR 1885    0    0    0    0    0
              Vix_Sundown  FED 1868    0    0    0    0    0
                SWO_Daddy  HYD 1867    0    0    0    0    0
         ScottishEngineer  ZIN 1860    0    0    0    0    0
                Capt_Fast  WAX 1835    0    0    0    0    0
               Andromedan  RKE 1764    0    0    0    0    0
                 Klenotic  WBS 1663    0    0    0    0    0
                 MaxSpeed  GRN 1553    0    0    0    0    0

-----------------------------
--    31 MAY PREDICTION    --
-----------------------------

                                      AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
                 CALLSIGN SHIP RATE   R1   R2   R3   SF   Final
                    Moose  WAX 2746  100  100  100  100   54
                     Grim  GRN 2774  100  100  100  100   46
                       BS  KLI 2810    0    0    0    0    0
               Old_School  ISC 2790  100    0    0    0    0
                   Bakija  GRN 2734  100    0    0    0    0
               Sir_Krotar  ORI 2670  100    0    0    0    0
                Sir_Hood1  RKR 2669  100  100    0    0    0
               captainron  WBS 2553  100  100  100    0    0
               captainron  WBS 2553  100  100  100    0    0
          Agent_of_Change  ISC 2534  100    0    0    0    0
                    Romwe  HYD 2515  100    0    0    0    0
                    Krieg  KLI 2489  100  100    0    0    0
                    Gregg  RFH 2474  100    0    0    0    0
                  Spartan  RKR 2441    0    0    0    0    0
                   Laszlo  HYD 2433    0    0    0    0    0
              Tartan_Army  HYD 2426  100  100    0    0    0
    Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons  ZIN 2422  100  100    0    0    0
  Sir_GaiusFrackingBaltar  GRN 2343    0    0    0    0    0
              AdmiralDZZI  ZIN 2280    0    0    0    0    0
                    Devil  KLI 2274  100  100  100    0    0
                     Duke  RKR 2248  100    0    0    0    0
                    Jando  GRN 2129  100    0    0    0    0
                 V_Raptor  GRN 2050    0    0    0    0    0
                      vic  GRN 1934    0    0    0    0    0
                  CarlZog  KLI 1929    0    0    0    0    0
                   Krypto  LYR 1879    0    0    0    0    0
              Vix_Sundown  FED 1860    0    0    0    0    0
                SWO_Daddy  HYD 1858    0    0    0    0    0
         ScottishEngineer  ZIN 1854    0    0    0    0    0
                Capt_Fast  WAX 1828    0    0    0    0    0
               Andromedan  RKE 1759    0    0    0    0    0
                 Klenotic  WBS 1632    0    0    0    0    0
                 MaxSpeed  GRN 1517    0    0    0    0    0

-----------------------------
--  5 APRIL PREDICTION*    --
-----------------------------

                                      AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
                 CALLSIGN SHIP RATE   R1   R2   R3   SF   Final
                    Moose  WAX 2736  100  100  100  100   61
                     Grim  GRN 2728  100  100  100   78   34
                    Devil  KLI 2290  100  100  100   22    5
                       BS  KLI 2792    0    0    0    0    0
               Old_School  ISC 2787  100  100  100    0    0
                   Bakija  GRN 2732  100    0    0    0    0
                Sir_Hood1  RKR 2669  100  100    0    0    0
                 Sir_Hood  RKR 2669    0    0    0    0    0
               Sir_Krotar  ORI 2652  100    0    0    0    0
               captainron  WBS 2550  100    0    0    0    0
          Agent_of_Change  ISC 2528  100    0    0    0    0
                    Romwe  HYD 2513  100    0    0    0    0
                    Krieg  KLI 2491  100  100    0    0    0
                    Gregg  RFH 2470  100    0    0    0    0
                  Spartan  RKR 2455    0    0    0    0    0
                   Laszlo  HYD 2436    0    0    0    0    0
              Tartan_Army  HYD 2435  100  100    0    0    0
    Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons  ZIN 2419  100  100    0    0    0
      GaiusFrackingBaltar  GRN 2403    0    0    0    0    0
              AdmiralDZZI  ZIN 2281    0    0    0    0    0
                     Duke  RKR 2206  100    0    0    0    0
                    Jando  GRN 2135  100    0    0    0    0
                 V_Raptor  GRN 2055    0    0    0    0    0
                      vic  GRN 1934    0    0    0    0    0
                  CarlZog  KLI 1931    0    0    0    0    0
                   Krypto  LYR 1877    0    0    0    0    0
              Vix_Sundown  FED 1859    0    0    0    0    0
                SWO_Daddy  HYD 1857    0    0    0    0    0
         ScottishEngineer  ZIN 1849    0    0    0    0    0
                Capt_Fast  WAX 1824    0    0    0    0    0
               Andromedan  RKE 1758    0    0    0    0    0
                 Klenotic  WBS 1629    0    0    0    0    0
                 MaxSpeed  GRN 1521    0    0    0    0    0

* Corrected player ratings.

-----------------------------
--  30 MARCH PREDICTION    --
-----------------------------

                                      AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
                 CALLSIGN SHIP RATE   R1   R2   R3   SF   Final
                    Moose  WAX 2647  100  100  100  100   81
                    Devil  KLI 2204  100  100  100   58   12
                     Grim  GRN 2021  100  100  100   42    7
               Old_School  ISC 2735  100  100  100    0    0
                       BS  KLI 2723    0    0    0    0    0
                   Bakija  GRN 2683  100    0    0    0    0
                Sir_Hood1  RKR 2629  100  100    0    0    0
                 Sir_Hood  RKR 2629    0    0    0    0    0
               Sir_Krotar  ORI 2575  100    0    0    0    0
               captainron  WBS 2511  100    0    0    0    0
                    Romwe  HYD 2493  100    0    0    0    0
                    Gregg  RFH 2442  100    0    0    0    0
                    Krieg  KLI 2420  100  100    0    0    0
              Tartan_Army  HYD 2408  100  100    0    0    0
                   Laszlo  HYD 2395    0    0    0    0    0
    Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons  ZIN 2383  100  100    0    0    0
                  Spartan  RKR 2380    0    0    0    0    0
              AdmiralDZZI  ZIN 2290    0    0    0    0    0
          Agent_of_Change  ISC 2279  100    0    0    0    0
                     Duke  RKR 2208  100    0    0    0    0
                    Jando  GRN 2135  100    0    0    0    0
      GaiusFrackingBaltar  GRN 2131    0    0    0    0    0
                 V_Raptor  GRN 2023    0    0    0    0    0
                  CarlZog  KLI 2017    0    0    0    0    0
                      vic  GRN 1993    0    0    0    0    0
                   Krypto  LYR 1985    0    0    0    0    0
              Vix_Sundown  FED 1914    0    0    0    0    0
                SWO_Daddy  HYD 1896    0    0    0    0    0
                Capt_Fast  WAX 1886    0    0    0    0    0
         ScottishEngineer  ZIN 1869    0    0    0    0    0
               Andromedan  RKE 1798    0    0    0    0    0
                 Klenotic  WBS 1686    0    0    0    0    0
                 MaxSpeed  GRN 1617    0    0    0    0    0

-----------------------------
--   2 MARCH PREDICTION    --
-----------------------------

                                      AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
                 CALLSIGN SHIP RATE   R1   R2   R3   SF   Final
                    Moose  WAX 2647  100  100  100  100   72
              Tartan_Army  HYD 2408  100  100   63   41   17
                     Grim  GRN 2021  100  100  100   37    6
                    Devil  KLI 2204  100  100   37   22    5
               Old_School  ISC 2735  100  100  100    0    0
                       BS  KLI 2723    0    0    0    0    0
                   Bakija  GRN 2683  100    0    0    0    0
                 Sir_Hood  RKR 2629  100  100    0    0    0
               Sir_Krotar  ORI 2575  100    0    0    0    0
               captainron  WBS 2511  100    0    0    0    0
                    Romwe  HYD 2493  100    0    0    0    0
                    Gregg  RFH 2442  100    0    0    0    0
                    Krieg  KLI 2420  100  100    0    0    0
                   Laszlo  HYD 2395    0    0    0    0    0
    Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons  ZIN 2383  100  100    0    0    0
                  Spartan  RKR 2380    0    0    0    0    0
              AdmiralDZZI  ZIN 2290    0    0    0    0    0
          Agent_of_Change  ISC 2279  100    0    0    0    0
                     Duke  RKR 2208  100    0    0    0    0
                    Jando  GRN 2135  100    0    0    0    0
      GaiusFrackingBaltar  GRN 2131    0    0    0    0    0
                 V_Raptor  GRN 2023    0    0    0    0    0
                  CarlZog  KLI 2017    0    0    0    0    0
                      vic  GRN 1993    0    0    0    0    0
                   Krypto  LYR 1985    0    0    0    0    0
              Vix_Sundown  FED 1914    0    0    0    0    0
                SWO_Daddy  HYD 1896    0    0    0    0    0
                Capt_Fast  WAX 1886    0    0    0    0    0
         ScottishEngineer  ZIN 1869    0    0    0    0    0
               Andromedan  RKE 1798    0    0    0    0    0
                 Klenotic  WBS 1686    0    0    0    0    0
                 MaxSpeed  GRN 1617    0    0    0    0    0

-----------------------------
-- 30 NOVEMBER PREDICTION  --
-----------------------------

                                      AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
                 CALLSIGN SHIP RATE   R1   R2   R3   SF   Final
               Old_School  ISC 2733  100  100  100   66   48
                    Moose  WAX 2644  100  100  100   34   22
    Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons  ZIN 2379  100  100   63   34   14
              Tartan_Army  HYD 2402  100  100   62   35   12
                    Devil  KLI 2194  100  100   38   17    2
                     Grim  GRN 2016  100  100   37   14    2
                       BS  KLI 2705    0    0    0    0    0
                   Bakija  GRN 2681  100    0    0    0    0
                 Sir_Hood  RKR 2626  100  100    0    0    0
               Sir_Krotar  ORI 2562  100    0    0    0    0
               captainron  WBS 2507  100    0    0    0    0
                    Romwe  HYD 2491  100    0    0    0    0
                    Gregg  RFH 2439  100    0    0    0    0
                    Krieg  KLI 2417  100  100    0    0    0
                   Laszlo  HYD 2396    0    0    0    0    0
                  Spartan  RKR 2373    0    0    0    0    0
              AdmiralDZZI  ZIN 2294    0    0    0    0    0
          Agent_of_Change  ISC 2240  100    0    0    0    0
                     Duke  RKR 2207  100    0    0    0    0
                    Jando  GRN 2134  100    0    0    0    0
      GaiusFrackingBaltar  GRN 2107    0    0    0    0    0
                 V_Raptor  GRN 2018    0    0    0    0    0
                  CarlZog  KLI 2018    0    0    0    0    0
                      vic  GRN 1994    0    0    0    0    0
                   Krypto  LYR 1987    0    0    0    0    0
              Vix_Sundown  FED 1915    0    0    0    0    0
                SWO_Daddy  HYD 1897    0    0    0    0    0
                Capt_Fast  WAX 1889    0    0    0    0    0
         ScottishEngineer  ZIN 1868    0    0    0    0    0
               Andromedan  RKE 1802    0    0    0    0    0
                 Klenotic  WBS 1680    0    0    0    0    0
                 MaxSpeed  GRN 1625    0    0    0    0    0

----------------------------
-- 12 OCTOBER PREDICTION  --
----------------------------

                                      AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
                 CALLSIGN SHIP RATE   R1   R2   R3   SF   Final
               Old_School  ISC 2731  100  100   60   39   27
                 Sir_Hood  RKR 2623  100  100   46   21   14
                    Romwe  HYD 2490  100   78   44   24   10
              Tartan_Army  HYD 2398  100  100   57   28   10
    Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons  ZIN 2376  100  100   49   26   10
                   Bakija  GRN 2679  100   50   26   13    9
                    Moose  WAX 2641  100   50   29   12    7
               Sir_Krotar  ORI 2552  100   63   32   14    6
                  Spartan  RKR 2367   67   47   24   12    3
                    Krieg  KLI 2409  100   37    8    2    1
                    Jando  GRN 2134   72   29   12    5    1
                       BS  KLI 2678    0    0    0    0    0
               captainron  WBS 2507  100    0    0    0    0
                    Gregg  RFH 2435  100    0    0    0    0
                   Laszlo  HYD 2390    0    0    0    0    0
              AdmiralDZZI  ZIN 2299    0    0    0    0    0
                     Duke  RKR 2207  100    0    0    0    0
          Agent_of_Change  ISC 2202  100    0    0    0    0
                    Devil  KLI 2179   33   19    7    2    0
      GaiusFrackingBaltar  GRN 2100    0    0    0    0    0
                  CarlZog  KLI 2019    0    0    0    0    0
                     Grim  GRN 2008   55   16    6    2    0
                 V_Raptor  GRN 2006    0    0    0    0    0
                      vic  GRN 1995    0    0    0    0    0
                   Krypto  LYR 1989    0    0    0    0    0
              Vix_Sundown  FED 1916    0    0    0    0    0
                SWO_Daddy  HYD 1900    0    0    0    0    0
                Capt_Fast  WAX 1891   45    6    1    0    0
         ScottishEngineer  ZIN 1866    0    0    0    0    0
               Andromedan  RKE 1807    0    0    0    0    0
                 Klenotic  WBS 1687   28    5    1    0    0
                 MaxSpeed  GRN 1634    0    0    0    0    0

------------------------------
-- 20 SEPTEMBER PREDICTION  --
------------------------------

                                      AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
                 CALLSIGN SHIP RATE   R1   R2   R3   SF   Final
               Old_School  ISC 2750  100   75   43   27   18
                 Sir_Hood  RKR 2653  100  100   44   22   15
              Tartan_Army  HYD 2476  100  100   58   31   12
                   Bakija  GRN 2730  100   52   28   15   11
                    Romwe  HYD 2509  100   80   46   25   11
    Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons  ZIN 2381  100  100   48   23    9
                    Moose  WAX 2668  100   48   28   14    8
               Sir_Krotar  ORI 2612  100   69   39   17    8
                  Spartan  RKR 2439   72   52   26   14    5
                    Gregg  RFH 2464  100   25   10    3    1
                    Krieg  KLI 2385  100   31    8    2    1
                    Jando  GRN 2147   76   28   11    4    1
                       BS  KLI 2725    0    0    0    0    0
               captainron  WBS 2560  100    0    0    0    0
                   Laszlo  HYD 2465    0    0    0    0    0
              AdmiralDZZI  ZIN 2401    0    0    0    0    0
                     Duke  RKR 2238  100    0    0    0    0
          Agent_of_Change  ISC 2233  100    0    0    0    0
      GaiusFrackingBaltar  GRN 2186    0    0    0    0    0
                    Devil  KLI 2180   28   16    5    2    0
                  CarlZog  KLI 2040    0    0    0    0    0
                 V_Raptor  GRN 2004    0    0    0    0    0
                     Grim  GRN 2000   57   15    5    1    0
                   Krypto  LYR 2000    0    0    0    0    0
                      vic  GRN 2000    0    0    0    0    0
              Vix_Sundown  FED 1886    0    0    0    0    0
                SWO_Daddy  HYD 1878    0    0    0    0    0
                Capt_Fast  WAX 1863   43    5    1    0    0
         ScottishEngineer  ZIN 1842    0    0    0    0    0
               Andromedan  RKE 1765    0    0    0    0    0
                 Klenotic  WBS 1630   24    4    1    0    0
                 MaxSpeed  GRN 1586    0    0    0    0    0

-------------------------
-- ORIGINAL PREDICTION --
-------------------------

                                      AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
                 CALLSIGN SHIP RATE   R1   R2   R3   SF   Final   
               Old_School  ISC 2750   89   69   42   26   17
                   Bakija  GRN 2730   86   48   28   15   11
                       BS  KLI 2725   67   48   33   22   11
                    Moose  WAX 2668   92   48   30   15    9
                    Romwe  HYD 2509   88   70   36   20    9
                 Sir_Hood  RKR 2653   84   45   20   11    7
               captainron  WBS 2560   85   49   20   10    6
              Tartan_Army  HYD 2476   94   53   31   15    6
               Sir_Krotar  ORI 2612   79   41   24   10    5
                  Spartan  RKR 2439   72   53   28   14    5
                   Laszlo  HYD 2465   56   37   17    7    3
              AdmiralDZZI  ZIN 2401   58   29   15    7    3
    Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons  ZIN 2381   54   23   12    6    2
                    Gregg  RFH 2464   76   25    9    3    1
                    Krieg  KLI 2385   45   18    5    2    1
                     Duke  RKR 2238   42   17    8    3    1
          Agent_of_Change  ISC 2233   33   14    6    3    1
      GaiusFrackingBaltar  GRN 2186   46   14    7    3    1
                    Jando  GRN 2147   76   28   11    4    1
                    Devil  KLI 2180   28   15    5    2    0
                  CarlZog  KLI 2040   14    3    1    0    0
                 V_Raptor  GRN 2004   16    4    1    0    0
                     Grim  GRN 2000   56   18    5    1    0
                   Krypto  LYR 2000   24    3    0    0    0
                      vic  GRN 2000   11    4    1    0    0
              Vix_Sundown  FED 1886    8    1    0    0    0
                SWO_Daddy  HYD 1878   15    2    0    0    0
                Capt_Fast  WAX 1863   44    8    1    0    0
         ScottishEngineer  ZIN 1842   21    4    1    0    0
               Andromedan  RKE 1765    6    1    0    0    0
                 Klenotic  WBS 1630   24    4    1    0    0
                 MaxSpeed  GRN 1586   12    4    0    0    0