SUPR Tournament Predictions for Platinum Hat 2013
The table below shows my prediction for the Platinum Hat 2013 based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings. The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).
The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings (Appendix D - Time Varying), so they include both TC RPS and player skill.
Results are now shown both for the initial bracket structure, and for subsequent times when various match results are known. The subsequent updates are not carried out on any fixed schedule.
----------------------------- -- 8 JUNE FINAL -- ----------------------------- AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final Moose WAX 2735 100 100 100 100 100 BS KLI 2791 0 0 0 0 0 Old_School ISC 2765 100 100 100 0 0 Bakija GRN 2708 100 0 0 0 0 Grim GRN 2651 100 100 100 100 0 Sir_Krotar ORI 2649 100 0 0 0 0 Sir_Hood1 RKR 2636 100 100 0 0 0 Sir_Hood RKR 2636 0 0 0 0 0 captainron WBS 2523 100 0 0 0 0 Agent_of_Change ISC 2502 100 0 0 0 0 Romwe HYD 2487 100 0 0 0 0 Krieg KLI 2463 100 100 0 0 0 Gregg RFH 2435 100 0 0 0 0 Spartan RKR 2413 0 0 0 0 0 Tartan_Army HYD 2408 100 100 0 0 0 Laszlo HYD 2396 0 0 0 0 0 Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons ZIN 2390 100 100 0 0 0 Sir_GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 2324 0 0 0 0 0 AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2257 0 0 0 0 0 Devil KLI 2253 100 100 100 0 0 Duke RKR 2223 100 0 0 0 0 Jando GRN 2112 100 0 0 0 0 V_Raptor GRN 2030 0 0 0 0 0 vic GRN 1936 0 0 0 0 0 CarlZog KLI 1930 0 0 0 0 0 Krypto LYR 1885 0 0 0 0 0 Vix_Sundown FED 1868 0 0 0 0 0 SWO_Daddy HYD 1867 0 0 0 0 0 ScottishEngineer ZIN 1860 0 0 0 0 0 Capt_Fast WAX 1835 0 0 0 0 0 Andromedan RKE 1764 0 0 0 0 0 Klenotic WBS 1663 0 0 0 0 0 MaxSpeed GRN 1553 0 0 0 0 0 ----------------------------- -- 31 MAY PREDICTION -- ----------------------------- AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final Moose WAX 2746 100 100 100 100 54 Grim GRN 2774 100 100 100 100 46 BS KLI 2810 0 0 0 0 0 Old_School ISC 2790 100 0 0 0 0 Bakija GRN 2734 100 0 0 0 0 Sir_Krotar ORI 2670 100 0 0 0 0 Sir_Hood1 RKR 2669 100 100 0 0 0 captainron WBS 2553 100 100 100 0 0 captainron WBS 2553 100 100 100 0 0 Agent_of_Change ISC 2534 100 0 0 0 0 Romwe HYD 2515 100 0 0 0 0 Krieg KLI 2489 100 100 0 0 0 Gregg RFH 2474 100 0 0 0 0 Spartan RKR 2441 0 0 0 0 0 Laszlo HYD 2433 0 0 0 0 0 Tartan_Army HYD 2426 100 100 0 0 0 Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons ZIN 2422 100 100 0 0 0 Sir_GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 2343 0 0 0 0 0 AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2280 0 0 0 0 0 Devil KLI 2274 100 100 100 0 0 Duke RKR 2248 100 0 0 0 0 Jando GRN 2129 100 0 0 0 0 V_Raptor GRN 2050 0 0 0 0 0 vic GRN 1934 0 0 0 0 0 CarlZog KLI 1929 0 0 0 0 0 Krypto LYR 1879 0 0 0 0 0 Vix_Sundown FED 1860 0 0 0 0 0 SWO_Daddy HYD 1858 0 0 0 0 0 ScottishEngineer ZIN 1854 0 0 0 0 0 Capt_Fast WAX 1828 0 0 0 0 0 Andromedan RKE 1759 0 0 0 0 0 Klenotic WBS 1632 0 0 0 0 0 MaxSpeed GRN 1517 0 0 0 0 0 ----------------------------- -- 5 APRIL PREDICTION* -- ----------------------------- AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final Moose WAX 2736 100 100 100 100 61 Grim GRN 2728 100 100 100 78 34 Devil KLI 2290 100 100 100 22 5 BS KLI 2792 0 0 0 0 0 Old_School ISC 2787 100 100 100 0 0 Bakija GRN 2732 100 0 0 0 0 Sir_Hood1 RKR 2669 100 100 0 0 0 Sir_Hood RKR 2669 0 0 0 0 0 Sir_Krotar ORI 2652 100 0 0 0 0 captainron WBS 2550 100 0 0 0 0 Agent_of_Change ISC 2528 100 0 0 0 0 Romwe HYD 2513 100 0 0 0 0 Krieg KLI 2491 100 100 0 0 0 Gregg RFH 2470 100 0 0 0 0 Spartan RKR 2455 0 0 0 0 0 Laszlo HYD 2436 0 0 0 0 0 Tartan_Army HYD 2435 100 100 0 0 0 Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons ZIN 2419 100 100 0 0 0 GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 2403 0 0 0 0 0 AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2281 0 0 0 0 0 Duke RKR 2206 100 0 0 0 0 Jando GRN 2135 100 0 0 0 0 V_Raptor GRN 2055 0 0 0 0 0 vic GRN 1934 0 0 0 0 0 CarlZog KLI 1931 0 0 0 0 0 Krypto LYR 1877 0 0 0 0 0 Vix_Sundown FED 1859 0 0 0 0 0 SWO_Daddy HYD 1857 0 0 0 0 0 ScottishEngineer ZIN 1849 0 0 0 0 0 Capt_Fast WAX 1824 0 0 0 0 0 Andromedan RKE 1758 0 0 0 0 0 Klenotic WBS 1629 0 0 0 0 0 MaxSpeed GRN 1521 0 0 0 0 0 * Corrected player ratings. ----------------------------- -- 30 MARCH PREDICTION -- ----------------------------- AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final Moose WAX 2647 100 100 100 100 81 Devil KLI 2204 100 100 100 58 12 Grim GRN 2021 100 100 100 42 7 Old_School ISC 2735 100 100 100 0 0 BS KLI 2723 0 0 0 0 0 Bakija GRN 2683 100 0 0 0 0 Sir_Hood1 RKR 2629 100 100 0 0 0 Sir_Hood RKR 2629 0 0 0 0 0 Sir_Krotar ORI 2575 100 0 0 0 0 captainron WBS 2511 100 0 0 0 0 Romwe HYD 2493 100 0 0 0 0 Gregg RFH 2442 100 0 0 0 0 Krieg KLI 2420 100 100 0 0 0 Tartan_Army HYD 2408 100 100 0 0 0 Laszlo HYD 2395 0 0 0 0 0 Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons ZIN 2383 100 100 0 0 0 Spartan RKR 2380 0 0 0 0 0 AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2290 0 0 0 0 0 Agent_of_Change ISC 2279 100 0 0 0 0 Duke RKR 2208 100 0 0 0 0 Jando GRN 2135 100 0 0 0 0 GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 2131 0 0 0 0 0 V_Raptor GRN 2023 0 0 0 0 0 CarlZog KLI 2017 0 0 0 0 0 vic GRN 1993 0 0 0 0 0 Krypto LYR 1985 0 0 0 0 0 Vix_Sundown FED 1914 0 0 0 0 0 SWO_Daddy HYD 1896 0 0 0 0 0 Capt_Fast WAX 1886 0 0 0 0 0 ScottishEngineer ZIN 1869 0 0 0 0 0 Andromedan RKE 1798 0 0 0 0 0 Klenotic WBS 1686 0 0 0 0 0 MaxSpeed GRN 1617 0 0 0 0 0 ----------------------------- -- 2 MARCH PREDICTION -- ----------------------------- AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final Moose WAX 2647 100 100 100 100 72 Tartan_Army HYD 2408 100 100 63 41 17 Grim GRN 2021 100 100 100 37 6 Devil KLI 2204 100 100 37 22 5 Old_School ISC 2735 100 100 100 0 0 BS KLI 2723 0 0 0 0 0 Bakija GRN 2683 100 0 0 0 0 Sir_Hood RKR 2629 100 100 0 0 0 Sir_Krotar ORI 2575 100 0 0 0 0 captainron WBS 2511 100 0 0 0 0 Romwe HYD 2493 100 0 0 0 0 Gregg RFH 2442 100 0 0 0 0 Krieg KLI 2420 100 100 0 0 0 Laszlo HYD 2395 0 0 0 0 0 Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons ZIN 2383 100 100 0 0 0 Spartan RKR 2380 0 0 0 0 0 AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2290 0 0 0 0 0 Agent_of_Change ISC 2279 100 0 0 0 0 Duke RKR 2208 100 0 0 0 0 Jando GRN 2135 100 0 0 0 0 GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 2131 0 0 0 0 0 V_Raptor GRN 2023 0 0 0 0 0 CarlZog KLI 2017 0 0 0 0 0 vic GRN 1993 0 0 0 0 0 Krypto LYR 1985 0 0 0 0 0 Vix_Sundown FED 1914 0 0 0 0 0 SWO_Daddy HYD 1896 0 0 0 0 0 Capt_Fast WAX 1886 0 0 0 0 0 ScottishEngineer ZIN 1869 0 0 0 0 0 Andromedan RKE 1798 0 0 0 0 0 Klenotic WBS 1686 0 0 0 0 0 MaxSpeed GRN 1617 0 0 0 0 0 ----------------------------- -- 30 NOVEMBER PREDICTION -- ----------------------------- AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final Old_School ISC 2733 100 100 100 66 48 Moose WAX 2644 100 100 100 34 22 Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons ZIN 2379 100 100 63 34 14 Tartan_Army HYD 2402 100 100 62 35 12 Devil KLI 2194 100 100 38 17 2 Grim GRN 2016 100 100 37 14 2 BS KLI 2705 0 0 0 0 0 Bakija GRN 2681 100 0 0 0 0 Sir_Hood RKR 2626 100 100 0 0 0 Sir_Krotar ORI 2562 100 0 0 0 0 captainron WBS 2507 100 0 0 0 0 Romwe HYD 2491 100 0 0 0 0 Gregg RFH 2439 100 0 0 0 0 Krieg KLI 2417 100 100 0 0 0 Laszlo HYD 2396 0 0 0 0 0 Spartan RKR 2373 0 0 0 0 0 AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2294 0 0 0 0 0 Agent_of_Change ISC 2240 100 0 0 0 0 Duke RKR 2207 100 0 0 0 0 Jando GRN 2134 100 0 0 0 0 GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 2107 0 0 0 0 0 V_Raptor GRN 2018 0 0 0 0 0 CarlZog KLI 2018 0 0 0 0 0 vic GRN 1994 0 0 0 0 0 Krypto LYR 1987 0 0 0 0 0 Vix_Sundown FED 1915 0 0 0 0 0 SWO_Daddy HYD 1897 0 0 0 0 0 Capt_Fast WAX 1889 0 0 0 0 0 ScottishEngineer ZIN 1868 0 0 0 0 0 Andromedan RKE 1802 0 0 0 0 0 Klenotic WBS 1680 0 0 0 0 0 MaxSpeed GRN 1625 0 0 0 0 0 ---------------------------- -- 12 OCTOBER PREDICTION -- ---------------------------- AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final Old_School ISC 2731 100 100 60 39 27 Sir_Hood RKR 2623 100 100 46 21 14 Romwe HYD 2490 100 78 44 24 10 Tartan_Army HYD 2398 100 100 57 28 10 Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons ZIN 2376 100 100 49 26 10 Bakija GRN 2679 100 50 26 13 9 Moose WAX 2641 100 50 29 12 7 Sir_Krotar ORI 2552 100 63 32 14 6 Spartan RKR 2367 67 47 24 12 3 Krieg KLI 2409 100 37 8 2 1 Jando GRN 2134 72 29 12 5 1 BS KLI 2678 0 0 0 0 0 captainron WBS 2507 100 0 0 0 0 Gregg RFH 2435 100 0 0 0 0 Laszlo HYD 2390 0 0 0 0 0 AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2299 0 0 0 0 0 Duke RKR 2207 100 0 0 0 0 Agent_of_Change ISC 2202 100 0 0 0 0 Devil KLI 2179 33 19 7 2 0 GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 2100 0 0 0 0 0 CarlZog KLI 2019 0 0 0 0 0 Grim GRN 2008 55 16 6 2 0 V_Raptor GRN 2006 0 0 0 0 0 vic GRN 1995 0 0 0 0 0 Krypto LYR 1989 0 0 0 0 0 Vix_Sundown FED 1916 0 0 0 0 0 SWO_Daddy HYD 1900 0 0 0 0 0 Capt_Fast WAX 1891 45 6 1 0 0 ScottishEngineer ZIN 1866 0 0 0 0 0 Andromedan RKE 1807 0 0 0 0 0 Klenotic WBS 1687 28 5 1 0 0 MaxSpeed GRN 1634 0 0 0 0 0 ------------------------------ -- 20 SEPTEMBER PREDICTION -- ------------------------------ AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final Old_School ISC 2750 100 75 43 27 18 Sir_Hood RKR 2653 100 100 44 22 15 Tartan_Army HYD 2476 100 100 58 31 12 Bakija GRN 2730 100 52 28 15 11 Romwe HYD 2509 100 80 46 25 11 Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons ZIN 2381 100 100 48 23 9 Moose WAX 2668 100 48 28 14 8 Sir_Krotar ORI 2612 100 69 39 17 8 Spartan RKR 2439 72 52 26 14 5 Gregg RFH 2464 100 25 10 3 1 Krieg KLI 2385 100 31 8 2 1 Jando GRN 2147 76 28 11 4 1 BS KLI 2725 0 0 0 0 0 captainron WBS 2560 100 0 0 0 0 Laszlo HYD 2465 0 0 0 0 0 AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2401 0 0 0 0 0 Duke RKR 2238 100 0 0 0 0 Agent_of_Change ISC 2233 100 0 0 0 0 GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 2186 0 0 0 0 0 Devil KLI 2180 28 16 5 2 0 CarlZog KLI 2040 0 0 0 0 0 V_Raptor GRN 2004 0 0 0 0 0 Grim GRN 2000 57 15 5 1 0 Krypto LYR 2000 0 0 0 0 0 vic GRN 2000 0 0 0 0 0 Vix_Sundown FED 1886 0 0 0 0 0 SWO_Daddy HYD 1878 0 0 0 0 0 Capt_Fast WAX 1863 43 5 1 0 0 ScottishEngineer ZIN 1842 0 0 0 0 0 Andromedan RKE 1765 0 0 0 0 0 Klenotic WBS 1630 24 4 1 0 0 MaxSpeed GRN 1586 0 0 0 0 0 ------------------------- -- ORIGINAL PREDICTION -- ------------------------- AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final Old_School ISC 2750 89 69 42 26 17 Bakija GRN 2730 86 48 28 15 11 BS KLI 2725 67 48 33 22 11 Moose WAX 2668 92 48 30 15 9 Romwe HYD 2509 88 70 36 20 9 Sir_Hood RKR 2653 84 45 20 11 7 captainron WBS 2560 85 49 20 10 6 Tartan_Army HYD 2476 94 53 31 15 6 Sir_Krotar ORI 2612 79 41 24 10 5 Spartan RKR 2439 72 53 28 14 5 Laszlo HYD 2465 56 37 17 7 3 AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2401 58 29 15 7 3 Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons ZIN 2381 54 23 12 6 2 Gregg RFH 2464 76 25 9 3 1 Krieg KLI 2385 45 18 5 2 1 Duke RKR 2238 42 17 8 3 1 Agent_of_Change ISC 2233 33 14 6 3 1 GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 2186 46 14 7 3 1 Jando GRN 2147 76 28 11 4 1 Devil KLI 2180 28 15 5 2 0 CarlZog KLI 2040 14 3 1 0 0 V_Raptor GRN 2004 16 4 1 0 0 Grim GRN 2000 56 18 5 1 0 Krypto LYR 2000 24 3 0 0 0 vic GRN 2000 11 4 1 0 0 Vix_Sundown FED 1886 8 1 0 0 0 SWO_Daddy HYD 1878 15 2 0 0 0 Capt_Fast WAX 1863 44 8 1 0 0 ScottishEngineer ZIN 1842 21 4 1 0 0 Andromedan RKE 1765 6 1 0 0 0 Klenotic WBS 1630 24 4 1 0 0 MaxSpeed GRN 1586 12 4 0 0 0