SUPR Tournament Predictions for Platinum Hat 2012
The table below shows my prediction for the Platinum Hat 2012 based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings. The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).
The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings, so they include both TC RPS and player skill. The results are based on the starting bracket structure of the tournament. That is, all the player pairings, who got the BYES, etc. are exactly as per what the judge posted for Round 1. No modifications have been made for the true results of any of the matches, for players dropping out, reentering, and so on. The table below is based on everyone listed for Round 1 playing until they lose, paired up as per the Round 1 bracket structure.
* Simulation run 9 February 2013 using SUPR data through Sept 2012. Hence there is some (modest) error introduced, because the ratings used are influenced by some of the tournament's match results.
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 R4 SF Final
The_Rock WBS 3245 100 88 75 65 45 36
Old_School ISC 3010 100 86 73 47 24 17
BS KLI 2884 100 79 65 45 27 10
Vendetta KLI 2963 95 60 52 25 12 8
Moose KLI 2869 100 71 57 36 22 8
Gregg RFH 2773 100 88 42 23 12 3
Lord_Goofy ZIN 2756 100 40 32 16 7 3
Sir_CatWhoEatsPhotons WBS 2665 100 70 53 15 6 3
captainron WBS 2626 100 86 53 25 13 3
Laszlo HYD 2601 100 51 33 14 6 2
Romwe FED 2706 100 63 29 12 5 1
BigLizard KLI 2610 61 33 19 9 4 1
Denagoth GRN 2482 97 29 18 7 3 1
Droid WAX 2478 100 82 16 8 2 1
Sir_Hood FED 2672 100 72 28 5 2 0
Duke LYR 2507 100 90 22 9 3 0
Krieg GRN 2459 100 72 18 7 1 0
AdmiralDZZI-1 ZIN 2435 39 16 9 3 1 0
AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2435 90 12 8 4 1 0
agent_of_change-1 KLI 2421 71 25 12 2 0 0
Agent_of_Change KLI 2421 88 21 13 6 2 0
Jonbig RFH 2322 47 18 5 1 0 0
CrashAndBurn WAX 2269 100 90 24 8 2 0
CarlZog FED 2240 46 12 2 0 0 0
Tartan_Army LYR 2229 54 16 3 0 0 0
ShyHawk RFH 2226 100 59 9 2 0 0
Pimp_Daddy_Sackett ORI 2142 82 14 4 1 0 0
BaldnForty GRN 2134 100 41 7 1 0 0
Devil WBS 2087 53 19 4 1 0 0
Kludge WBS 2049 29 5 2 0 0 0
Sky_Captain WBS 2018 100 28 5 1 0 0
Andromedan SEL 1972 12 1 0 0 0 0
Andromedan-1 SEL 1972 100 14 3 0 0 0
GaiusFrackingBaltar GRN 1883 100 18 1 0 0 0
Vix_Sundown FED 1881 10 0 0 0 0 0
Vix_Sundown-1 FED 1881 5 0 0 0 0 0
ScottishEngineer ZIN 1806 51 6 1 0 0 0
Neonpico HYD 1781 49 7 1 0 0 0
Jungletoy LYR 1707 18 0 0 0 0 0
MaxSpeed RKR 1534 100 10 1 0 0 0
Klenotic ZIN 1471 100 10 0 0 0 0
Spaceball KLI 1205 3 0 0 0 0 0