SUPR Tournament Predictions for 2011 Platinum Hat

The table below shows my prediction for the 2011 Platinum Hat based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings. The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).

The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings, so they include both TC RPS and player skill. The results are based on the starting bracket structure of the RAT. That is, all the player pairings, who got the BYES, etc. are exactly as per what the judge posted for Round 1. No modifications have been made for the true results of any of the matches, for players dropping out, reentering, and so on. The table below is based on everyone listed for Round 1 playing until they lose, paired up as per the Round 1 bracket structure. Note that Duke reentered in Round 1, and this is represented by the RE_Duke line.

                                     AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING
                 CALLSIGN SHIP RATE   R1   R2   R3   SF   Final   
               Old_School  ZIN 3007   97   91   55   34   24
                 The_Rock  THA 3261   92   81   40   25   15
               Lord_Goofy  WBS 2748   95   78   56   32   14
                       BS  KLI 2866   92   61   41   26   12
                    Moose  KLI 2863   86   71   38   18   11
                   Bakija  GRN 2870   98   58   36   16    9
                   Laszlo  HYD 2602   80   44   18    9    3
                    Gregg  RFH 2770   46   22   10    5    2
                    Romwe  FED 2724   74   41   14    6    2
                 Sir_Hood  RKR 2636   44   17    8    3    2
               captainron  WBS 2597   56   25   12    3    2
              AdmiralDZZI  ZIN 2564   51   19    9    5    1
                  RE_Duke  RKR 2511   54   27   11    4    1
                     Duke  RKR 2511   49   18    9    4    1
                    Droid  WAX 2463   54   31   12    4    1
                  Grraven  KLI 2426   46   24    8    3    1
                Sir_Akira  WAX 2446   68   14    3    1    0
                 Hardcore  ORI 2403   20    8    2    1    0
            BigSlowTarget  LDR 2400   44    7    2    1    0
                    Krieg  RKR 2372   56   14    6    2    0
                   Jonbig  RFH 2338   32    4    1    0    0
             CrashAndBurn  WAX 2224   88   19    4    0    0
              Tartan_Army  ZIN 2136   14    9    2    0    0
                Jungletoy  LYR 2000   35    2    0    0    0
                    Devil  WBS 1960   65    6    1    0    0
              Sky_Captain  WBS 1908   26    5    1    0    0
      GaiusFrackingBaltar  WBS 1714    8    2    0    0    0
                     Burl  GRN 1713    5    1    0    0    0
            EastCoastFolk  RKE 1704    3    1    0    0    0
                  PsyBomb  ISC 1690    8    1    0    0    0
                 MaxSpeed  RKR 1514   12    1    0    0    0
                 Klenotic  FED 1475    2    0    0    0    0