SUPR Tournament Predictions for 2011 Platinum Hat
The table below shows my prediction for the 2011 Platinum Hat based on my most recent estimate of player and ship ratings. The first column shows the callsigns of the players, the second column shows their selected ship, and the third column shows their player rating. The next set of columns shows the probability that the player will win each round of the tournament, from the first round up through the final match (last column of table).
The probabilities in the table are calculated from my SUPR player and ship ratings, so they include both TC RPS and player skill. The results are based on the starting bracket structure of the RAT. That is, all the player pairings, who got the BYES, etc. are exactly as per what the judge posted for Round 1. No modifications have been made for the true results of any of the matches, for players dropping out, reentering, and so on. The table below is based on everyone listed for Round 1 playing until they lose, paired up as per the Round 1 bracket structure. Note that Duke reentered in Round 1, and this is represented by the RE_Duke line.
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING CALLSIGN SHIP RATE R1 R2 R3 SF Final Old_School ZIN 3007 97 91 55 34 24 The_Rock THA 3261 92 81 40 25 15 Lord_Goofy WBS 2748 95 78 56 32 14 BS KLI 2866 92 61 41 26 12 Moose KLI 2863 86 71 38 18 11 Bakija GRN 2870 98 58 36 16 9 Laszlo HYD 2602 80 44 18 9 3 Gregg RFH 2770 46 22 10 5 2 Romwe FED 2724 74 41 14 6 2 Sir_Hood RKR 2636 44 17 8 3 2 captainron WBS 2597 56 25 12 3 2 AdmiralDZZI ZIN 2564 51 19 9 5 1 RE_Duke RKR 2511 54 27 11 4 1 Duke RKR 2511 49 18 9 4 1 Droid WAX 2463 54 31 12 4 1 Grraven KLI 2426 46 24 8 3 1 Sir_Akira WAX 2446 68 14 3 1 0 Hardcore ORI 2403 20 8 2 1 0 BigSlowTarget LDR 2400 44 7 2 1 0 Krieg RKR 2372 56 14 6 2 0 Jonbig RFH 2338 32 4 1 0 0 CrashAndBurn WAX 2224 88 19 4 0 0 Tartan_Army ZIN 2136 14 9 2 0 0 Jungletoy LYR 2000 35 2 0 0 0 Devil WBS 1960 65 6 1 0 0 Sky_Captain WBS 1908 26 5 1 0 0 GaiusFrackingBaltar WBS 1714 8 2 0 0 0 Burl GRN 1713 5 1 0 0 0 EastCoastFolk RKE 1704 3 1 0 0 0 PsyBomb ISC 1690 8 1 0 0 0 MaxSpeed RKR 1514 12 1 0 0 0 Klenotic FED 1475 2 0 0 0 0